MLB Bet of the Day | April 16, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 24-23-0, -0.80u
RECAP: We took yesterday off, but have been on as hot a run as ever in this MLB season, going 10-3 over our last four days in the MLB world. We’re rock solid on our methods and plays now, and I feel like we’re finally going to get over this hump that has dragged us down most of April – and this stretch shows that we CAN win and string wins together. Let’s build on it today. 

April 16th, 2024

I have quite a strategy here at MLB of the Day which involves rookie starting pitchers in their first start in the big leagues. It’s worked on pitchers like Grayson Rodriguez and a few others throughout the past two seasons, and we’re going back to it to continue this season… and it’s absolutely fading rookies in their first starts of the season. Not just fading them, but run-lining them into oblivion. And we have that today in Chicago as the White Sox take on their divisional foe Royals. 

The pitcher in question here is Jonathan Cannon, rookie for the White Sox making his first career MLB start tonight. Despite having the coolest name for a pitcher ever, there is little evidence to say that he’s ready for the big leagues – last season even, he sported a pretty high WHIP in AAA. While he’s highly touted within this White Sox farm system, I believe that this Royals lineup, and pitcher Brady Singer, will be able to keep the rookie in check. 

Players like Vinnie Pasquantino and Salvy Perez are finally hitting their strides this season, and their offense has shown that it can hang with the best of them. On the pitching side, Brady Singer is starting, who has a ton of history of dominating the White Sox throughout his career. Through 117 plate appearances, his xBA and BA are eerily similar, meaning that he’s pitching to his true form against this team. That’s to the tune of a .233 xBA and a .266 xwOBA, among the best in the league for one pitcher against one team. He doesn’t walk anyone and he strikes out 25% of batters against this team, and we’re feeling good with our pick based on the pitching side alone. 

While the Royals haven’t been stellar on the road, the Sox have won one game all season at home, and against righties, are smashing the ball. The White Sox have the most anemic offense in the league, and Brady Singer is due to carve them up, especially with a newbie on the mound on the other side. 

Salvador Perez and company are going to have to score on the road today, but they’re doing it against an arm that hasn’t seen big league bats in a regular season game. Let’s take the Royals on the Run Line, which you can get right now at -105. 

PICK: Kansas City Royals -1.5

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