MLB Bet of the Day | April 11, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 16-19, -3.96u
RECAP: And we have put ourselves in quite a hole. The MLB season can be an unforgiving one – there was a time last season where we had nine consecutive losing days. While we still are going to finish positive on the year – my goal was forty units of profit – we’ve got a bit to climb out of, because the totals in the Arizona and Cleveland games didn’t pan out, and Boston ran out of steam. Let’s get it today in this early slate. 

April 11th, 2024

These offenses have just been on fire, and you’re telling me that pitcher Nick Martinez is going to stop that onslaught of boom today in Great American Ballpark? The Reds are closing their four game series with division-rival Milwaukee today in an early game, where we’re seeing Freddy Peralta take the hill for the Brewers. 

Peralta is a really dominant pitcher – he’s been having a good season, allowing just four earned runs over nearly twelve innings of work through his first two starts. While he ranks very highly in nearly every statistical category for pitchers (including a .154 xBA, in the top 90% of the league), he’s been barrelled more times than he’d like, indicating that batters are getting to the ball, but the BABIP may not be as high as it should. That being said, last season, he pitched against the Reds twice, and blanked them over 12 innings. He’s been dominant against this team, but this is a different Reds team than last season.

On the other side is Nick Martinez, who doesn’t walk anyone, but doesn’t necessarily miss bats, averaging 8.6 barrels per game. Especially in GAB, we’re going to see the ball fly today off the bats of these two offenses. Martinez has given up eight runs over ten innings of work this season, against two BAD offenses in the Mets and Nats. 

But the big kicker here is that the offenses are flying right now. Against righties this season, the Brewers are averaging over six runs per game, and the Reds are averaging nearly six runs per game. If we switch it to home/away splits, the Brewers are averaging nearly seven runs per game on the road against righties. 

Even if Peralta has his A-Game today, his bullpen is averaging an ERA over five, and he can’t stay in this game the entire time, especially against this offense, and in this away stadium. Let’s take the over in this game and rely on the hot bats that we’ve seen throughout this series already, in which every single game has already gone over. 

PICK: Milwaukee/Cincinnati over 8.5

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