Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Matchup Preview - September 28th, 2022

The Miami Marlins enter the game as the 7th ranked team per The Sharp Model X's Power Rankings and will battle the 22nd ranked Mets at Citi Field. The Marlins rank 2nd in MLB in steals and will likely lean on that speed in their attempt to win today. When the Mets have found success this year, it's been through their hitting ability. They rank 4th in baseball in batting average.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Jesus Luzardo has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 3.0 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.

• Garrett Cooper has been unlucky with his home runs this year; his 11.50 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is quite a bit lower than his 21.00 Expected HR/600 (based on The Sharp Model X's interpretation of Statcast data).

• The Miami Marlins have been the 9th-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to The Sharp Model X, and are likely to hit worse the rest of the season

New York Mets Insights

• It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Taijuan Walker has utilized his off-speed and breaking pitches 15.5% more often this season (58.7%) than he did last season (43.2%).

• Darin Ruf has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (92% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.

• The New York Mets bullpen projects as the 5th-best in Major League Baseball, per The Sharp Model.

Betting Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.05 Units / 35% ROI)

• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 41 away games (+4.35 Units / 8% ROI)

• Brandon Nimmo has hit the Singles Under in 27 of his last 40 games at home (+14.85 Units / 35% ROI)