Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Matchup Preview - September 28th, 2022

Julio Urias (19th ranked SP via The Sharp Model) is projected to take the mound for Dodgers as they battle the Padres and Joe Musgrove (38th ranked SP) at Petco Park. The quick scouting report on Urias: his main fastball is a four-seamer, which he uses 46.9% of the time. His primary out-pitch is a curveball (32.8%). Meanwhile, Musgrove primarily throws a four-seamer fastball (23.7%) and his most-used secondary offering is his slider (24.7%). The Sharp Model X projects Urias for 2.3 earned runs and 4.8 strikeouts in this matchup. On the other side, Musgrove is forecasted for 2.8 earned runs and 5.5 strikeouts.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Julio Urias has averaged 17 outs per start this year, grading out in the 76th percentile.

• Max Muncy's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this year (25.1°) is a considerable increase over his 19.7° mark last year.

• Joey Gallo has a high pull rate on his flyballs (41.1% — 100th percentile) and will be challenged by the league's 6th-deepest RF fences today.

San Diego Padres Insights

• It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Joe Musgrove has utilized his secondary pitches 5.4% less often this year (69.8%) than he did last season (75.2%).

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Juan Soto stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

• The San Diego Padres projected offense profiles as the 5th-best of the day.

Betting Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 14 games (+1.85 Units / 11% ROI)

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 19 of their last 33 away games (+3.05 Units / 7% ROI)

• Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 38 games at home (+8.70 Units / 13% ROI)