Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Matchup Preview - September 27th, 2022

Today's contest between the Padres and the Dodgers pits The Sharp Model's 68th ranked SP (Tyler Anderson) against the 30th ranked SP (Blake Snell). The rundown on Anderson tells us that he leans on his four-seamer fastball 37.6% of the time and keeps hitters off balance with a changeup (32.6%). Snell is a four-seam guy (55.2%) who brings a slider as his most-trusted secondary offering. Advanced stats (namely, FIP) tell us that Anderson deserves something like a 3.40 ERA, compared to his actual ERA of 2.52. On that front, Snell's ERA sits at 3.62 and his FIP at 2.77.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Tyler Anderson has gone to his change-up 8.1% more often this season (32.6%) than he did last season (24.5%).

• Hanser Alberto's average exit velocity has dropped off this season; his 86.9-mph figure last season has decreased to 82.6-mph.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Blake Snell's 2428 rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 93rd percentile among starting pitchers.

• Manny Machado has been lucky this year, notching a .380 wOBA despite The Sharp Model X estimating his true talent level to be .344 — a .036 gap.

• The San Diego Padres bullpen grades out as the 7th-best in the league, per The Sharp Model.

Betting Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 65 of their last 130 games (+6.20 Units / 4% ROI)

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Run Line in 90 of their last 148 games (+28.15 Units / 16% ROI)

• Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Singles Over in 33 of his last 58 games (+11.25 Units / 18% ROI)