Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Matchup Preview - September 26th, 2022

The Cincinnati Reds (60-93) will battle the Pittsburgh Pirates (56-97) on Monday night. Oddsmakers peg the Pirates as the favorite with an implied win probablity of 56%, leaving the Reds with a 44% chance to record a win. Based on the current odds the Reds have an implied team total of 3.73 compared to 4.27 for the Pirates.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Chase Anderson is an extreme flyball pitcher (40.6% FB% according to The Sharp Model projections) and should be helped pitching in the #24 HR venue in Major League Baseball today.

• Aristides Aquino is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of Pittsburgh (#3-best of all teams on the slate today).

• Today’s version of the Reds projected lineup is weaker than usual, as their .291 The Sharp Model X wOBA is considerably below their .302 overall projected rate.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Roansy Contreras has a reverse platoon split and will be disadvantaged facing 7 same-handed hitters in this matchup.

• Ben Gamel has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (80% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this matchup.

• The Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen grades out as the worst in the majors, according to THE BAT.

Betting Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 29 of their last 56 games at home (+3.60 Units / 6% ROI)

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 69 of their last 126 games (+13.55 Units / 10% ROI)

• Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 30 of his last 54 games at home (+11.35 Units / 15% ROI)