Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Matchup Preview - September 30th, 2022

2 years ago

Editor

Right-hander Graham Ashcraft is expected to start today for Cincinnati, while right-hander Adrian Sampson gets the nod at home for Chicago. Ashcraft enters this contest with a 4.18 ERA, backed up by a 4.02 FIP (which is a better measure of the things a pitcher can control). Sampson, meanwhile, has a 3.79 FIP underlying his 3.23 ERA. The last time Graham Ashcraft was on the bump, he suffered the loss as the Reds lost 2-10 against the Brewers. He left allowing 4 earned runs and recording 2 strikeouts with 0 walks. Sampson's last start was against the Pirates, when he recorded the win as the Cubs were victorious 8-3. Over 6 innings pitched, he allowed 1 earned run with 4 hits. He also recorded 3 strikeouts with 0 walks.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

Graham Ashcraft’s fastball velocity over his last 3 games started (98.2 mph) has been considerably better than than his seasonal rate (96.7 mph).
Stuart Fairchild has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (76% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game.
Today’s version of the Reds projected offense is weaker than usual, as their .288 The Sharp Model X wOBA is considerably below their .303 overall projected rate.

Chicago Cubs Insights

Adrian Sampson has been given a shorter leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 4.5 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.
The Cincinnati Reds have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Zach McKinstry has a strong chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.
The Chicago Cubs bullpen grades out as the 6th-worst in the game, via The Sharp Model.

Betting Trends

The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 28 games (+2.65 Units / 9% ROI)
The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.90 Units / 50% ROI)
Mike Minor has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.25 Units / 75% ROI)