Anthony P's MLB Model September 30, 2022

Anthony P
As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will be adding new sports and models to the app. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB and NFL models as often as possible.

To read the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.
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I know I know baseball is less and less sexy this time of the year and we can't wait for the playoffs, and hockey and basketball!!! But we still got to grind guys!!!!

The model top picks went 1-1 yesterday. It has 2 other plays today. The Braves and the over in San Francisco.

I'm excited about this game and series. The Mets have a 1 game lead over the Braves and the winner of this series will most probably win the division. deGrom, oddly enough, has allowed 11 ERs in his last 3 games and 15 innings pitched! He's 0-2 in his last 3 games with an ERA of 6.60! Weird! Max is being Max! The Braves pushed him over 100 pitches in back-to-back games and we can expect the same tonight. It's a tough game to call and it's going to be a close one and we have close to +10% EV on the Braves at home with a somewhat struggling deGrom in his last 3 games.... I'll take my chances on the Braves!

As for the over in San Francisco, I'm not too crazy about it! Kelly has been dominating the Giants pitching 7 innings in both last games, blanking them one in game one game and allowing 2 ERs in the other. He did allow 12 ERs in his previous 3 games and he's been averaging 4 ERs against in his last 3 road games. Cobb gave him 5 ERs to Arizona 6 days on the road but he's been solid at home this season.

Good luck

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