Anthony P's MLB Model September 29, 2022

As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will be adding new sports and models to the app. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB and NFL models as often as possible.

To read the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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MLB BETTING MODEL FOR SEPT 29, 2022

The model is recommending 2 bets today. Seattle -115 and the over in Anaheim.

The Mariners won 3-1 over the Rangers yesterday and are getting closer and closer in sealing that wildcard spot. Seattle has totally dominated the Rangers and I don't see this stopping until the Mariners are officially in the playoff. I'm not a fan of Marco Gonzales and it's the only thing keeping me from smashing the Mariners at this price. Gray shut down the Guardians and Marlins and gave up 2 ER to the Rays in his last 3 games however he only pitched a total of 12 innings in his last 3 games.

Angels over? No thanks. With Ohtani on the mount, it's almost an auto-under and now he's facing the second worst team in run production this year. In Ohtani's last 10 games, the total went over 7 runs only once. Both pitchers total out props are at 18.5 while the average offer is 17.5. Irvin got beaten up by the Mets, and Braves in his last 4 games. He gave up 4 ERs to the Astros however he pitched a decent 7 innings in that game. He's not good on the road and he's been having a terrible month of September posting an ERA of 8.49 in 23.1 IPs. But there is a light at the end of the tunnel for him since he will be facing one of the worst teams versus LHP.

Good luck

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