Anthony P's MLB Model September 27, 2022

As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will be adding new sports and models to the app. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB and NFL models as often as possible.

To read the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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MLB BETTING MODEL FOR SEPT 27, 2022

I expected better from the Reds yesterday but that's what happens when you want to place a wager on a shitty team... they always disappoint you. The Orioles were hungry and the model was spot on them.

The model likes too many over today and that always scares me in late September. Before we get there, I would fade the Minnesota value. Both teams have been shit as of late and will be missing the playoffs. I would at the under but the model is supporting the opposite.

I don't want to bet on shitty teams in September. I just dont want! Therefore I won't touch the over in Pittsburgh. I like the under with Keller pitching.

As of the over in Milwaukee, Houser showed some signs of fatigue with his velo dropping but the Cards offense kinda dried up last 7 games. They scored 2 runs or less in 5 of their last 7. The Brewers put up 27 runs in their last 5 games. Mikolas pitched a great game versus the Padres however he allowed 3 runs to the Reds and 4 runs to the Pirates in the previous 2 games. He's 5-10 away with an ERA of over 4. The over hit 5 of the last 7 games in Milwaukee and the wind is OTRC at 15 mph. I support the over here.

Marquez ERA is cut in half when he's on the road. He's allowed 2 runs in the last 14 innings pitched on the road and he blanked the Mets about a month ago. He just saw the Giants lineup 6 days ago and allowed 3 ERs. As for Webb, he just blanked the Rockies 6 days ago. the lineups are familiar for both pitchers and went they faced each other 6 days ago the game finished 6-1 in Coors and way under the 10.5 total posted. Winds are blowing out at 18 MPH out to the center.

Good luck


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