Anthony P's MLB Model September 26, 2022

As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will be adding new sports and models to the app. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB and NFL models as often as possible.

To read the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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MLB BETTING MODEL FOR SEPT 26, 2022

The model went 2-0 yesterday with the Yankees and Cubs. Today it likes the Reds and Orioles. The value is not that high for Baltimore since the line moved in their favor overnight going from +125 to +112.

The Pirates have been terrible and overall the Reds are better. Pittsburgh has only won 5 home games in their last 22 and has a wRC+ of 85 in September. Sadly, during the same period, the Reds have a wRC+ of 81. It gets worst for them in the last 14 days sitting at 61 and only Arizona has been worst at 55. We can't bet on these shit teams.

Baltimore is playing .500 ball in September while the Red Sox have looked terrible last 20-25 days. Lyles scares me in this game. he pitched a complete game versus a shitty Tigers team and he exceeded expectations however the Red Sox destroyed him with 8 ERs just over 2-week ago. The O's do get a boost with Seabold pitching for Boston. He's allowed 30 hits in 16 innings pitched. I would lean on the hungry Orioles to win this game!!

Good luck


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