Anthony P's MLB Model October 4, 2022

As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will be adding new sports and models to the app. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB and NFL models as often as possible.

To read the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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MLB BETTING MODEL FOR OCT 4, 2022

Yesterday was a quiet day for MLB. The model was heavy on totals and it's the same story today. It's the time of the year when the weather becomes a factor. Also, the lineups are getting weaker and weaker with calls ups and to be honest, it's a real waste of time making major adjustments to a model just for the last 2-3 weeks.

Today the model likes 4 games.

NY YANKEES -127 G1

Judge is still chasing after 62 while the Yankees have been smoking hot losing only 3 of their last 16. Meanwhile, the Ranges have been awful winning only 3 of their last 15, and their offense is officially put to bed. Gray had the worst outing of the season and allowed 6 ERs to the Mariners a week ago. The Rangers don't give a ($(%@$% anymore and it shows! Wait for the lineups to be confirmed but load on the Yankees.

ST LOUIS -127

I don't like how this line moved at Betonline and I will stay away from this game. They have nothing to play for and word is they will be resting many of their relievers.

MILWAUKEE +102

Do the Brewers even care anymore? Awful series versus the Marlins after a big series versus the Cardinals. They looked awful versus the Reds... is that how you play when you are fighting for a playoff spot? Good luck getting to Gallen tonight. He's been tremendous this season and he should dominate tonight. I don't agree with this value.


SAN FRANCISCO +129

Here is another team that is out of the playoffs and sadly they've been hot only losing 2 of their last 13. Rodon has a +130 on the road is always interesting since he always gives the Giants a chance of winning. His home and away splits are not the same but he still kept a WHIP of close to 1 on the road. The Giants have been playing as if they are still after a playoff spot, they are 8-1 on the road last 9 games, Manaea hasn't been the same since the ASB and we can continue to expect the Padres of resting some key players.

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