Anthony P's MLB Model October 21, 2022

As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will be adding new sports and models to the app. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB, NFL, and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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MLB BETTING MODEL FOR OCT 21, 2022

Today we have close to 10% EV on the over. The model has been loving the overs in this series. Musgrove looks unhittable since Sept 28th while Suarez hasn't been great.

You guys know how much I hate to bet overs in the playoffs and this is another spot that I can't pull the trigger. Musgrove has been fantastic during the playoffs and he will need to have a bad game for the over to hit. Suarez hasn't pitched since Oct 11 and he didn't look good versus the Braves allowing 5 BBs in only 3.1 innings. The game before he allowed 6 ER in 3 innings against the Astros. He also hasn't been that great at home with an ERA of 4.27 and a WHIP of 1.52. Can both offenses get to these pitchers? Definitely, the Padres have had great success versus LHPs on the road this year the over is 7-0 in their last 7 games and the Phillies are putting up 5 runs per game in their last 5. The Phillies have played 5 straight overs at home BUT the under is 19-7-1 in the last 27 games when the Padres are in Philly but then again they scored 13 runs yesterday with Snell and Nola pitching.

The offenses are clicking and are hot. No pitcher seems safe except Wheeler. Suarez has massive control issues and walks can sink him and Musgrove is due for some regression. The best recommendation I have for whoever will support the over, try and wait and get it at 7 since it might drop with some market makers having the total at 7.5u -120.


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