Anthony P's MLB Model October 18, 2022

As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will be adding new sports and models to the app. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

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Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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MLB BETTING MODEL FOR OCT 18, 2022

I left the Yankees game there since I'm hearing the game can be PPD due to bad weather. I believe they will do everything possible to play this game or else it will create a massive headache for game 1 in Houston. It would be really tough for the pitchers if they play on Tuesday instead and with basically no rest and play in Houston on Wednesday.

If this game gets PPD and the starting pitchers change I will update the model and this article.

As for the Padres and Phillies, both teams are riding high, and both the model and the sharp money like the over 6.5. We slightly have an 8% EV on the over with Wheeler and Darvish on the mount. I'll say it again, I HATE Darvish.

The Phillies are led by a hot Harper who has 10 hits and 3 home runs in the playoff and he will be supported by Wheeler who's been solid with an ERA of 2.20 in 12 innings he pitched in the playoffs. Wheeler threw to the Padres back in May and he continued his dominance maintaining an ERA of close to under 2 in his career against them. The Padres are flying high beating the Mets and Dodgers and now a rested Darvish who's also had success versus the Phillies maintaining an ERA of 2.20 in 7 starts will take the mount.

The under 4-0 when the Padres are playing at home when the total is set at 6.5 or lower and my initial thought would be an under with these pitchers on the mount. The offense is rolling for both teams, the Phillies have an R/9 of 4.89 in their last 5 games versus RHP and the Padres own an R/9 of 5.48 versus RHP.

I expect a pitching dual and I don't support the sharp money and the model.

Cleveland / New York

And Guardians are back in New York for the 5th and final game of this series. Civale hasn't pinched since October 5th and will be his first postseason game. Taillon came in relief and it wasn't a mount visit for him.

The value on this game is on the over. There is close to +12.5% EV on the over and our projections are at 8.58 versus 7.5.

I'm having a hard time supporting this over based on how the teams are hitting. Cleveland is hitting singles over singles and has a BA of .220 in the playoffs. The Yankees at batting .180 in 4 games and it could have been worst if it wasn't for Bader's performances.

For the Yankees to have a chance to win in this game they will need a big game from Taillon. The Yankees bullpen is taxed and that can be a big issue. Civale shouldn't stay long in the game but the skipper hasn't shared his game plan.

There are too many "ifs" for me to agree with the model and the over.

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