Anthony P's MLB Model October 17, 2022

As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will be adding new sports and models to the app. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB, NFL, and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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MLB BETTING MODEL FOR OCT 17, 2022

And Guardians are back in New York for the 5th and final game of this series. Civale hasn't pinched since October 5th and will be his first postseason game. Taillon came in relief and it wasn't a mount visit for him.

The value on this game is on the over. There is close to +12.5% EV on the over and our projections are at 8.58 versus 7.5.

I'm having a hard time supporting this over based on how the teams are hitting. Cleveland is hitting singles over singles and has a BA of .220 in the playoffs. The Yankees at batting .180 in 4 games and it could have been worst if it wasn't for Bader's performances.

For the Yankees to have a chance to win in this game they will need a big game from Taillon. The Yankees bullpen is taxed and that can be a big issue. Civale shouldn't stay long in the game but the skipper hasn't shared his game plan.

There are too many "ifs" for me to agree with the model and the over.

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