Anthony P's MLB Model October 14, 2022

As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will be adding new sports and models to the app. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB, NFL, and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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MLB BETTING MODEL FOR OCT 14, 2022

Already, let's get straight to business. The model has no projection in the Atlanta game since the API didn't load a line for the game however I can confirm that there is no value with Morton and Nola squaring off. There is little value on the over though since the model is projecting a total of 7.85 and the books have it at 7.

At -118 we slightly have over 7% EV on the Dodgers. Gonsolin has been perfect on the road this year going 7-0 with an ERA of 2.66 and a fantastic WHIP of 0.93. He didn't pitch in September and he made a quick appearance on Oct 3rd when he pitched 2 innings against the Rockies, he struck up 3 but gave up 3 hits and a earned run. The question is how long will he last? How's his arm? Will we see some rust from Tony? Who should we see in long relief if something happens (my best guess is May)

After a terrible first half for Snell (5.22 ERA), he was fantastic in the second half with an ERA of 2.19 and he had his best month in September when he posted an ERA of 2.06 and limited batters to a BA of 1.68. With those numbers, it made it interesting to see how he would do against the Mets. Well, it didn't work out for him! He lasted 3.1 innings, he gave up 6 walks, and his control was shit while averaging close to 30 pitches per inning.

The Dodgers are pissed off and will be hungry in San Diego. They have the 9th-best OPS against LHP and if Snell continues to have control issues the Dodgers will have no issues rolling.

I will make the Dodgers an official bet if I get the info I need about Tony. A healthy Tony pitching a minimum of 5 innings is what I am looking for and if we get that it shouldn't be an issue for him to continue his dominance over the Padres.

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