Anthony P's MLB Model October 13, 2022

As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will be adding new sports and models to the app. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB and NFL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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MLB BETTING MODEL FOR OCT 13, 2022

The focus was on the Padre's value on Wednesday however I didn't like it much. I wrote about liking the under but not trusting Darvish. Ended up both pitchers gave up much more than their September mean and as I'm writing this, Darvish is getting pulled with 2 on and no outs.

With the hockey season back I will still take a look at baseball on a daily basis however I will be spending less time handicapping it. If I see no value or little value ill most probably pass. A VIP pick today was on the Braves and they took care of business for us.

For Thursday we have little value on the Mariners and the over in New York.

I don't know what to say about Seattle. How will they come back after that brutal loss in game 1? I agree with the value here mostly because I prefer Castillo over Valdez in this match-up. Valdez was terrible in last year's playoffs and I didn't like his pitching in September. Castillo is kept on getting better and better and carrying massive momentum from his last outing. Anyway, the second I saw Alverez's homerun to end the game I told myself (and everyone else in our discord server) that the Mariners are dead. I'd stay away from this game.

With Bieber and Cortes on the mount, it's hard to support the over. Similar to the Dodgers game, this pitching matchup is pointing the under. The weather in LA was nice which can open up to be favorable for the hitters however it will be an ugly one in New York on Thursday. By game time, they expect rain, and wind blowing in the stadium up to 20 mph. Some US markets saw sharp money come in on the over 6 however the offshore markets received sharp money on the under 6.5.

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