Anthony P's MLB Model October 12, 2022

As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will be adding new sports and models to the app. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB and NFL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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MLB BETTING MODEL FOR OCT 12, 2022

It was a crazy Tuesday! We saw the Phillies dominate the Braves and the Astros needed a miracle to get past the Mariners.

For Wednesday's games, the book quickly adjusted their opening totals and there is no value however we find the Padres once again being the top EV play. Darvish was great in the last 6 weeks of the season going 7-1 and only allowing 12 ERs in his last 8 games. One of his impressive starts since September 13 was his last game versus the Mets. Darvish was terrible to start the season on the road but he got much better.

Kershaw is a perfect 6-0 at home this season with an ERA of 2.39 and a WHIP of 0.98. His ERA drops to 2.17 on the road but he has 23 Ks more at home while only having pitched 2 more innings. September was his best month (over 20 IP) with an ERA of 1.54 in 41 IP while limiting the opposition to a BA of 1.82. With respect to Darvish, he also had his best month in September with an ERA of 1.85 and a BA of .164.

The line is a little inflated but it's the Dodgers. Books love to inflate big market teams. I see this game going under more than anything else with these 2 pitchers that have been smoking hot in September and if this game comes down to the wire anyone can win.

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