Anthony P's MLB Model October 11, 2022

As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will be adding new sports and models to the app. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB and NFL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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MLB BETTING MODEL FOR OCT 11, 2022

And the real playoff begins today! The model is showing some value on the Padres however it's under 5% EV.

The play that stands out is the over in Los Angeles. The model is projecting a score of 7.98 while bookmakers priced it at 7. This gives us close to 12% EV. Based on the projections, the Dodgers are set to score 5.21 hence the majority of the runs and I can see this happening when looking at Clevinger allowing 14 ERs to the Dodgers in his 3 last games.

Urias has been on fire all season and hasn't allowed more than 2 runs in his last 10 and that only happened twice. His 3 last games had no decision however his ERA was 1.10 with a WHIP of 1.04 averaging close to 1 K per inning. The question is can the Padres get to him? San Diego scored 5.3 runs per game in the Mets series and both teams have played the over against each other going 4-1-1.

I like the value of the over however it's depended that the Padres can get 2-3 runs on Urias. I am not worried about the Dodgers getting their share of scoring.

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