Washington Commanders @ Detroit Lions Matchup Preview - September 18th, 2022

Editor

The Washington Commanders faceoff against the Detroit Lions in a Week 2 matchup. The Lions enter the game as a favorite (-135) as the home team. Detroit is currently favored by -2.5 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 49.0.

Washington's biggest weakness has been their defense, ranking #23 in the league while allowing 363 yards per game. Much of their struggle has come in trying to lock down the pass game, as they've allowed opposing QBs pass for the #4-most yards per game: 257. The Commanders have been at their worst when it comes to shutting down opposing wide receivers, allowing them to rack up 172 yards per game (#3-worst). Washington's worst position group in coverage has been their linebackers, which rank just #31 in the league in locking down route-runners. Washington's pass rush has been weak this year, being weighed down by their defensive ends, which check in as just the #29-best unit in terms of getting to the passer. In terms of their offense, the Commanders have ranked #25 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 213 yards per game (#27 in football). On the ground they've ranked #24 with 4.02 yards per carry.

Detroit's primary disadvantage has been their defense, which has allowed a monstrous 374 yards per game this year, sliding them into the #6 spot among the league's worst. Much of their struggle has come in trying to shut down the run game, as they've allowed opposing ball-carriers to rush for the #6-most yards per carry: 4.79. That kind of ineffectiveness has also leached over to their pass defense, which has landed them in the #29 spot in terms of yards per target (843.58). Lions defensive ends are perhaps most responsible for their dismal run defense this year, given that they grade out as the #1-worst unit in the NFL. When it comes to their offense, the Lions check in at #21 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 226 yards per game (#20 in football). Their run game has ranked #23 with 4.03 yards per attempt on the ground.

Washington Football Team Insights

  • This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

  • The Washington Commanders defensive tackles rank as the 2nd-best collection of DTs in the league since the start of last season when it comes to pass rush.

  • The Washington Commanders defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 432.90 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 2nd-least in football.

Detroit Lions Insights

  • THE BLITZ projects Jared Goff to be a much bigger part of his team's run game this week (6.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (1.6% in games he has played).

  • Jared Goff has been among the least efficient quarterbacks in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 646.18 yards-per-target while checking in at the lowly 16th percentile.

  • The Detroit Lions have gone for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in football), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

Betting Trends

  • The Detroit Lions have hit the Moneyline in 2 of their last 3 games at home (+5.95 Units / 198% ROI)

  • The Washington Commanders have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.80 Units / 41% ROI)

  • Jamaal Williams has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.80 Units / 61% ROI)