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49ers vs Chiefs Betting Trends, Odds, and Insights - February 11th, 2024

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In a highly anticipated Super Bowl matchup, the San Francisco 49ers will battle the Kansas City Chiefs for the chance to etch their name in NFL history and be crowned league champion. The scheduled kickoff is set for Sunday at 6:30 PM ET.

Both teams have had successful seasons, with the 49ers boasting a record of 14-5 and the Chiefs holding a record of 14-6. The Chiefs enter the game on a hot streak, having won five consecutive games, while the 49ers have won their last two.

Notably, the 49ers have been dominant on the road, winning five consecutive away games. In their last game, they secured a victory against the Detroit Lions with a score of 34-31. On the other hand, the Chiefs emerged victorious in their last game against the Baltimore Ravens, winning 17-10.

The last time these two teams faced off was in Week 7 of the 2022 season, resulting in a road win for the Chiefs with a score of 44-23. The Chiefs demonstrated their offensive prowess in that game, scoring a significant number of points and securing a blowout victory with a 21-point margin.

Despite being on the road, the 49ers are considered slight favorites for the game. The odds suggest that they have a 54% chance of winning, while the Chiefs have a 46% chance. The spread opened with the 49ers as a 1-point favorite, but it has since moved to 49ers -2, indicating a noticeable shift in the betting market.

As the game approaches, football fans and sports bettors alike eagerly await this clash of titans. Will the 49ers continue their road dominance, or will the Chiefs maintain their winning streak and secure a Super Bowl victory? Only time will tell as these two teams battle it out on the grand stage.

49ers Insights

  • This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

  • Brock Purdy's 9.19 adjusted yards-per-target this year conveys a substantial improvement in his throwing efficiency over last year's 8.0% figure.

  • This week, Christian McCaffrey is projected by the projections to place in the 100th percentile among RBs with 0.33 receiving touchdowns.

Chiefs Insights

  • The projections expect Mecole Hardman to be a much smaller piece of his team's air attack in this week's game (1.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (6.5% in games he has played).

  • After averaging 67.0 air yards per game last season, Travis Kelce has seen a big decline this season, currently sitting at 56.0 per game.

  • This year, the daunting San Francisco 49ers pass defense has allowed the 5th-least yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing TEs: a meager 4.0 YAC.

Betting Trends

  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the Game Total Under in their last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 91% ROI)

  • The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 away games (+5.05 Units / 24% ROI)

  • Patrick Mahomes has hit the Carries Over in 11 of his last 17 games (+5.25 Units / 26% ROI)

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