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Statsational Super Bowl LVIII Bets

John Alesia

As we gear up for the ultimate showdown of the NFL season, the Super Bowl, the air is thick with anticipation.

Firstly, let's talk about the Sharp Report from AnthonyP, a barometer I trust to gauge where the sharp money is flowing in at one of the largest sportsbooks. This time, it's signaling a clear trend: sharp money is leaning towards San Francisco at -1.5, while the public is backing Kansas City. This divergence between sharp and public money is always a key indicator for me, often hinting at the value overlooked by the broader betting populace.

Rewind to before the playoffs, and you'll recall my Super Bowl futures bet article. Out of the quartet of teams I earmarked based on a historical analysis of past Super Bowl winners, San Francisco was a standout suggestion. Their pedigree, performance, and potential painted them as prime contenders for the Lombardi Trophy.

One metric I've always harped on about is the passer rating differential. It's not just a number; it's a telling statistic that often foreshadows success in high-stakes games. With a differential of 30.6, San Francisco outclasses Kansas City in this department and aligns with a winning trend. Historically, teams that have outperformed their Super Bowl counterparts in offensive and defensive passer ratings boast a 15-8 record straight up in the big game.

The best comp I found for the 2023 San Francisco 49ers is the 1994 San Francisco 49ers. Coming into this year's postseason, the 49ers ranked 4th in Yards Per Rush, 1st in Yards Per Pass, 14th in Defensive Yards Per Rush, and 5th in Defensive Yards Per Pass. Compare that to the '94 Niners, who were 7th, first, 16th, and 6th in those categories.

When looking at the Passer Rating Differential, the '94 Niners had an Offensive Passer Rating of 111.4 and a defensive rating of 68.1. This year's SF team has an Offensive/Defensive passer rating of 110.2/79.6.

That 1994 team faced a much different opponent than this year's team will face. The Steve Young led 49ers went into Super Bowl XXIX a 17.5 point favorite over San Diego and won easily 49-26. This year, the 49ers team will have a much more difficult task in trying to defeat one of the best QBs of all time, Patrick Mahomes.

Betting against Mahomes has not been a profitable endeavor so tread lightly. The offense has actually been the main problem for Kansas City this season. While they were able to get past the best defense in the league in the Championship game they still scored just 17 points and were shut out in the second half.

San Francisco has not looked great on its road to the Super Bowl. They easily could have lost both games they played. This is giving us value on the San Francisco side. If Purdy can stay composed they should be able to squeak this one out in a tight low scoring game.


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