Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers Matchup Preview - October 23rd, 2022

Sunday the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-3) will battle the Carolina Panthers (1-5). Oddsmakers peg the Buccaneers as the huge favorite with an implied win probablity of 85%, leaving the Panthers with a 15% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Buccaneers -13.0 with a Game Total of 39.0.

Carolina's primary disadvantage this season has been their offense, which has ranked #31 in football with a low 160 yards per game. They've been so ineffective on offense in large part because of their aerial attack, clocking in at #27 in the league with just 87 yards per game. One consequence of this ineffectiveness has been the ability for opposing defenses to stack the box against them to stop the run, bringing up at least one extra defender 19.7% of the time. When it comes to their defense, the Panthers check in at #20 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 239 yards per game against Carolina this year (#16 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #15 against them with 4.56 yards per ground attempt. This Panthers defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, keeping them in check at just 36 yards per game (#8-best in the league). Carolina's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, who have caught 83.3% of their passes (#4-highest in the league).

Tampa Bay's biggest strength has been their offense, ranking #10 in the league with 240 yards per game. They've achieved offensive success largely through the quality of their passing attack, which is #4-best in football with 173 yards per game. It's no wonder they've done so well through the air when their offensive line ranks #8 in the league in pass protection. In terms of their defense, the Buccaneers have ranked #4 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 203 yards per game through the air against them (#7 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #6 with 4.23 yards per carry. Tampa Bay has been most effective in shutting down opposing running backs, holding them to 14 yards per game (#1-best). Tampa Bay has been least effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, giving up a 81.6% completion rate (#6-highest).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Insights

• The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing offense stats across the board.

• The Carolina Panthers defensive tackles grade out as the best collection of DTs in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.

• The Carolina Panthers defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 5.38 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-least in the league.

Carolina Panthers Insights

• The Sharp Model projects Phillip Walker to be a more important option in his team's running game this week (12.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (2.0% in games he has played).

• D.J. Moore's play as a receiver has diminished this season, averaging just 3.2 yards per game compared to 5.5 last season.

• The Carolina Panthers have gone for it on 4th down 23.9% of the time since the start of last season (5th-most in the league), which usually means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

Betting Trends

• The Carolina Panthers have hit the 1H Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+3.70 Units / 69% ROI)

• The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have scored last in 11 of their last 16 games (+3.85 Units / 17% ROI)

• Ian Thomas has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.45 Units / 44% ROI)