Seattle Seahawks vs Los Angeles Chargers Matchup Preview - October 23rd, 2022

Sunday the Seattle Seahawks (3-3) will battle the Los Angeles Chargers (4-2). Oddsmakers peg the Chargers as the big favorite with an implied win probablity of 66%, leaving the Seahawks with a 34% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Chargers -4.5 with a Game Total of 51.0.

Seattle's biggest strength has been their rushing offense, ranking #2 in the league with 5.52 yards per carry. This is all the more impressive because they've faced a stacked box the #4-most of any team in the league at 11.5%. Even with an extra tackler near the line of scrimmage, the Seahawks have still thrived on the ground. With how successful they've been on the ground, this has opened up opportunities through the air as well; Seattle has averaged 7.53 yards per target, which ranks them #8 in football. This represents a particular advantage for Seattle given that the Chargers have struggled so much to stop the run this year, allowing 5.83 yards per carry (#1-worst in the league). In terms of their defense, the Seahawks have ranked #31 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 262 yards per game through the air against them (#22 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #30 with 5.59 yards per carry. Seattle has been most effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, holding them to 127 yards per game (#2-best). Seattle has been least effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, giving up 11.36 yards per target (#1-worst).

Los Angeles's primary disadvantage has been their run defense, which has allowed a monstrous 5.83 yards per attempt on the ground this year, sliding them into the #1 spot among the league's worst. When teams struggle defending the run, they often bring an extra defender up near the line of scrimmage. The Chargers have elected not to do much of this, however, stacking the box the #10-least of any team in football -- just 13.8% of the time. Chargers defensive ends are perhaps most responsible for their dismal run defense this year, given that they grade out as the #4-worst unit in the NFL. When it comes to their offense, the Chargers check in at #12 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 134 yards per game (#11 in football). Their run game has ranked #20 with 4.27 yards per attempt on the ground.

Seattle Seahawks Insights

• The Sharp Model projects Geno Smith to be much more involved in his offense's running game this week (16.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (11.2% in games he has played).

• DK Metcalf has posted quite a few more air yards this season (102.0 per game) than he did last season (96.0 per game).

• The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has excelled when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, giving up an average of 3.53 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in football.

Los Angeles Chargers Insights

• The Sharp Model projects the Chargers to call the 5th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.7 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

• The Seattle Seahawks defensive ends rank as the 6th-worst collection of DEs in the league this year with their run defense.

• The Los Angeles Chargers have elected to go for it on 4th down 27.6% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-most in the NFL), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

Betting Trends

• The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.55 Units / 23% ROI)

• The Seattle Seahawks have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.55 Units / 27% ROI)

• Rashaad Penny has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 82% ROI)