Patriots vs Broncos Betting Trends, Odds, and Insights - December 24th, 2023

a year ago

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In a highly anticipated matchup, the New England Patriots will face off against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High. The game is scheduled to kick off on Sunday at 8:15 PM ET.

The Broncos will have an advantage in terms of rest, as they will have an extra day to prepare and recover for this game. Extra rest can be beneficial for teams to strategize and regain their strength. On the other hand, the Patriots will be playing on normal rest, which may put them at a slight disadvantage compared to the more-rested Broncos.

The Patriots will face the challenge of a long road trip, having traveled cross-country and across two time zones to reach Denver. This extended journey could potentially impact their performance and hinder their chances of winning the game.

The Broncos have been on a hot streak at home, winning their last four consecutive home games. Meanwhile, the Patriots have struggled recently, losing eight of their last ten games.

In their previous encounter during Week 6 of the 2020 season, the Broncos emerged victorious with an 18-12 road win over the Patriots. The game was closely contested, with only one touchdown separating the teams.

As the home team, the Broncos are considered the favorites in this matchup. They are currently ranked as the #29 biggest favorite on the slate. According to the odds, the Broncos have a 75% chance of winning the game, while the Patriots have a 25% chance.

With all these factors in play, this game promises to be an exciting battle between two teams with different recent trajectories. Football fans and sports bettors alike will be eagerly watching to see how this matchup unfolds.

Patriots Insights

The leading projections forecast Bailey Zappe to be much more involved in his team's rushing attack in this contest (11.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (4.6% in games he has played).
Bailey Zappe's passing accuracy has tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 70.0% to 61.7%.
In posting a paltry rate of 215.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year, the 10th-worst passing attack in football has been the New England Patriots.

Broncos Insights

The model projects the Broncos to call the 5th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.6 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
After averaging 100.0 air yards per game last year, Courtland Sutton has been a disappointment this year, currently pacing 76.0 per game.
This week, Russell Wilson is anticipated by the projections to score the 5th-most touchdowns on the ground among all quarterbacks with 0.23.

Betting Trends

The Denver Broncos have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.90 Units / 50% ROI)
The New England Patriots have hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 9 away games (+2.90 Units / 29% ROI)
Courtland Sutton has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.80 Units / 33% ROI)