NFL Bet of the Day | December 31, 2023

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 60-40, +23.23u
RECAP: Woooooooweee! We finally hit our Anytime TD Scorer parlay to put us up around 8 units on the day, including wins in Chicago and in the over in Minnesota. The Jaguars got smoked, but who cares - we hit an absolutely massive parlay, our biggest of the year. It was a Christmas Miracle! Today, we’re looking for another huge win in the NFL.

December 31, 2023

The Las Vegas Raiders are heading to Lucas Oil Stadium to take on the Indianapolis Colts, with the Colts trying to keep their season alive. They’re taking on an upbeat Vegas team that has been re-energized by their interim head coach, and driven through their defense.

Las Vegas’ defense has been one of the top road defenses in the entire league, and their O/U totals match it: they’re 11-4 when it comes to the under on the season. In fact, Vegas is 5-2 on the road this season on the under, and it’s looking ripe today as well. 

The under in this game has 43% of the overall handle on bets, while the money coming in is at a solid 65%. This makes for a 22% difference, and in the NFL, that’s almost unprecedented. We rarely see this big of a difference, and when we do, we absolutely capitalize on it. 

And we’re seeing line movement in that direction as well. This line opened at 43.5, and has plummeted to 42.5, and even 41.5. Those two points have been one of the biggest line movements we’ve seen this week in the NFL. The Sharp App Projections pin this right at our total of 42.5, and so I’ll take our chances with this total. This game is expected to be incredibly competitive, even if the Colts are overs machines. 

And while I’m not sure who wins this game, what I am sure of is this: the Raiders offense is the worst road offense in the league, averaging a full 100 yards below league average on offense. Their last three away games, they’re averaging only 219 yards of total offense. And this Colts D is nothing to mess with either, as they’ve proven that they can get to the QB and stop the pass. 

As the away underdog, Las Vegas is 5-1 when it comes to the under. This is a bet that we absolutely have to capitalize on, because the trends are just too clear. Let’s take the under in what should be a low-scoring game, especially with Vegas’ track record on road unders.

PICK:  Las Vegas / Indianapolis under 42.5

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