NFL Bet of the Day | December 24, 2023

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 56-38, +13.42u
RECAP: It’s been a minute since I’ve written about the NFL, mostly because I was completely sick last weekend and didn’t have any heart to write anything, haha. The last bet we hit was the Ravens beating up on the Jags for MNF last week, and we haven’t bet on football in a hot minute. That being said, we’re up over 13 units on the year in the NFL, let’s keep it going.

December 24, 2023

I can already tell you right now, this is going to be an unpopular pick. The Sharps are on the side of Tampa, and have lowered the line down from -3 to -1.5, and there’s significant data to show that the Bucs should win this game. 

But those data-pickers and such don’t ride on vibes, and you’re telling me that this Bucs team is going to beat the team that was one win away from the Super Bowl last season? And while they’re obviously not the same team, and hampered by injuries, this game should be a lot more in the Jags’ favor than we’re realizing.

And the Money Handles tool backs us up, too. When we look at the Moneyline, and not the spread, the Jaguars aren’t the public’s favorite - in fact, 58% of the public is betting on the Buccaneers to win this game. Fading the public, check. Now, when we look at the actual money placed here, the money is nearly all in favor of Jacksonville, hitting 78% of the money handle, making a difference of 36% in between the bets placed and money placed, which nails our criteria.

Plus, the Jags are absolutely emphatic on the road, winning four out of their last five road games, even against a tough road schedule. They’ve beat an upbeat Houston team, a tough Steelers defense, and a gritty Saints team on the road – but yet, have lost three straight games. Tampa Bay has won two straight, and are riding high after beating the Packers in Lambeau – so why are the Jags still favored, despite these two teams trending in different directions? 

All in all, the Jags boast the second-best road offense in the league, including the most passing yards on the road in the entire league. They’re scoring at a high pace that the Bucs may not be able to keep up with; in fact, the Jags have the number one road rushing defense in the league. 

So, let’s ride. You’re going to hate this pick. It’s gritty. It’s nasty. It’s a road favorite, who is barely a favorite. I trust Road Lawrence, and that this defense can buc-up (get it?) for a win that they NEED to have to secure their spot in the playoffs.

PICK: Jacksonville Jaguars ML

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