New York Jets vs Pittsburgh Steelers Matchup Preview - October 2nd, 2022

Sunday the New York Jets (1-2) will battle the Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2). Oddsmakers peg the Steelers as the favorite with an implied win probablity of 60%, leaving the Jets with a 40% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Steelers -3.0 with a Game Total of 41.0.

Pittsburgh's primary disadvantage this season has been their rushing offense, which has ranked #31 in football with a low 3.48 yards per carry. The most important component of a strong ground game is a good offensive line. If the line isn't opening up holes and creating space, it doesn't matter how good a team's running backs are. Unfortunately for Pittsburgh, their line ranks #5-worst in the league in run blocking. Perhaps because they routinely failt to successfully establish the run, Pittsburgh has also lacked effectiveness through the air. They've scraped together a measly 6.18 yards per target, ranking the bottom 10 in football. When it comes to their defense, the Steelers check in at #25 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 230 yards per game against Pittsburgh this year (#13 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #14 against them with 4.44 yards per ground attempt. This Steelers defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing running backs, allowing them to complete just 76.2% of their passes (#7-lowest in the league). Pittsburgh's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing running backs, who have scorched them for 40 yards per game (#8-worst in the league).

New York's biggest weakness has been their defense, ranking #32 in the league while allowing 397 yards per game. Much of their struggle has come in trying to shut down the run game, as they've allowed opposing ball-carriers to rush for the #1-most yards per carry: 4.94. That's not to give any unnecessary credit to their pass defense, though, which checks in at #2-worst in yards per target (8.74). What makes New York's issues all the more troublesome is that they've struggled in spite of stacking the box with an extra defender 22% of the time -- #3-most of any team in football. The Jets linebackers have played a big part in their inability to stop the run, ranking #1-worst in the NFL by this measure. In terms of their offense, the Jets have ranked #21 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 250 yards per game (#15 in football). On the ground they've ranked #22 with 4.13 yards per carry.

New York Jets Insights

• The New York Jets O-line ranks as the 9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.

• Ty Johnson has compiled a whopping 7.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 97th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

• The New York Jets have gone for it on 4th down 22.0% of the time since the start of last season (10th-most in football), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

Pittsburgh Steelers Insights

• The Sharp Model projects Mitchell Trubisky to be much more involved in his offense's rushing attack this week (12.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (3.3% in games he has played).

• The Pittsburgh Steelers defensive ends rank as the 3rd-best collection of DEs in the league since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.

• The Sharp Model projects Pat Freiermuth to accumulate 0.29 receiving touchdowns in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 94th percentile among tight ends.

Betting Trends

• The Pittsburgh Steelers have covered the 1H Spread in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.90 Units / 29% ROI)

• The New York Jets have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.50 Units / 31% ROI)

• Pat Freiermuth has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.25 Units / 26% ROI)