New York Jets vs Denver Broncos Matchup Preview - October 23rd, 2022

Sunday the New York Jets (4-2) will battle the Denver Broncos (2-4). Oddsmakers peg the Jets as the slight favorite with an implied win probablity of 54%, leaving the Broncos with a 46% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Jets -2.0 with a Game Total of 36.5.

New York's biggest strength has been their offense, ranking #2 in the league with 356 yards per game. They've achieved offensive success largely through the quality of their passing attack, which is #1-best in football with 257 yards per game. It's also worth noting that opposing defenses have stacked the box a whopping 13.6% of the time against the Jets in an attempt to stop the run game. But because passing is so much more important for an offensive to run effectively, this has opened up opportunities for New York's offense to succeed through the air. In terms of their defense, the Jets have ranked #7 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 218 yards per game through the air against them (#10 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #4 with 4.04 yards per carry. New York has been most effective in shutting down opposing running backs, holding them to a 70.3% completion rate (#6-lowest). Positionally, perhaps their worst defensive asset has been their linebackers, which rank just #32 in the league in terms of getting to the passer.

Denver's primary advantage has been their defense, which has allowed a scant 315 yards per game -- #5-best in the NFL. They've succeeded in large part due to their pass defense, which has held opposing air attacks to the #8-least yards per game: 204. The Denver Broncos pass defense has had the most success in covering opposing wide receivers, who have managed just 6.28 yards per target against them (#32-least in football). Denver's best coverage unit has been their safeties, which grade out as the #1 unit in the NFL in this regard. Denver's pass rush has been led by their linebackers who, ranking as the #2 unit in the NFL, have given opposing quarterbacks fits. When it comes to their offense, the Broncos check in at #27 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 99 yards per game (#22 in football). Their run game has ranked #24 with 3.95 yards per attempt on the ground.

New York Jets Insights

• The Sharp Model projects Zach Wilson to be a more integral piece of his team's running game this week (9.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).

• C.J. Uzomah's receiving reliability have been refined this year, with his Completion% jumping from 78.3% to 100.0%.

• The New York Jets have elected to go for it on 4th down 22.0% of the time since the start of last season (10th-most in the league), which usually means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Denver Broncos Insights

• The Denver Broncos offensive line grades out as the 10th-best in the NFL this year at run-game blocking.

• Courtland Sutton has put up far more air yards this season (105.0 per game) than he did last season (93.0 per game).

• The Sharp Model projects Courtland Sutton to notch 0.32 receiving touchdowns in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 79th percentile among wideouts.

Betting Trends

• The Denver Broncos have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.85 Units / 52% ROI)

• The New York Jets have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+7.00 Units / 140% ROI)

• C.J. Uzomah has hit the Receptions Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.90 Units / 43% ROI)