New York Giants vs Jacksonville Jaguars Matchup Preview - October 23rd, 2022

Daniel Jones and the New York Giants faceoff against Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars enter the game as a favorite (-165) as the home team. Jacksonville is currently favored by -3.0 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 44.0.

New York's biggest weakness has been their offense, ranking #25 in the league with a mere 191 yards per game. They've failed so much on offense in large part because of their passing attack, which checks in at #5-worst in football with 82 yards per game. It's tough to succeed when you don't have much time to throw, as has been the case for New York. Their offensive line has ranked just #25 in pass protection. In terms of their defense, the Giants have ranked #12 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 202 yards per game through the air against them (#6 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #28 with 5.4 yards per carry. New York has been most effective in shutting down opposing running backs, holding them to 24 yards per game (#4-best). New York has been least effective in shutting down opposing running backs, giving up 6.67 yards per target (#8-worst).

Jacksonville's primary advantage has been their run defense, which has allowed a scant 3.75 yards per attempt on the ground -- #3-best in the NFL. A big factor in their success has been their aggressiveness in stacking the box. They've brought a safety or extra defender up near the line of scrimmage 22.5% of the time this season, #2-most of any team in the league. This Jaguars run defense has been anchored by their linebackers, who grade out as the #3-best unit in the NFL. When it comes to their offense, the Jaguars check in at #12 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 105 yards per game (#21 in football). Their run game has ranked #5 with 5.18 yards per attempt on the ground.

New York Giants Insights

• The weather report calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.

• Daniel Jones's throwing accuracy has gotten better this year, with his Completion% increasing from 64.5% to 67.7%.

• The Sharp Model projects Daniel Jones to rush for 0.26 touchdowns in this game, on average: the 3rd-most of all quarterbacks.

Jacksonville Jaguars Insights

• The Sharp Model projects Trevor Lawrence to be much more involved in his team's rushing attack this week (14.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (7.7% in games he has played).

• Evan Engram has posted significantly more air yards this year (42.0 per game) than he did last year (24.0 per game).

• The New York Giants defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 5.34 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-least in football.

Betting Trends

• The Jacksonville Jaguars have scored first in 8 of their last 9 games (+9.05 Units / 93% ROI)

• The New York Giants have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+5.40 Units / 28% ROI)

• Daniel Jones has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.15 Units / 29% ROI)