New Orleans Saints vs Arizona Cardinals Matchup Preview - October 20th, 2022

Andy Dalton and the New Orleans Saints faceoff against Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals enter the game as a favorite (-145) as the home team. Arizona is currently favored by -2.5 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 43.5.

Arizona's primary disadvantage this season has been their rushing offense, which has ranked #23 in football with a low 4.05 yards per carry. Perhaps because they routinely failt to successfully establish the run, Arizona has also lacked effectiveness through the air. They've scraped together a measly 6.42 yards per target, ranking the bottom 10 in football. When it comes to their defense, the Cardinals check in at #17 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 241 yards per game against Arizona this year (#17 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #23 against them with 4.81 yards per ground attempt. This Cardinals defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, keeping them in check at just 7.17 yards per target (#5-best in the league). Arizona's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, who have scorched them for 74 yards per game (#3-worst in the league).

New Orleans's biggest strength has been their offense, ranking #3 in the league with 335 yards per game. They've achieved offensive success largely through the quality of their passing attack, which is #3-best in football with 246 yards per game. It's no wonder they've done so well through the air when their offensive line ranks #6 in the league in pass protection. In terms of their defense, the Saints have ranked #11 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 217 yards per game through the air against them (#10 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #19 with 4.74 yards per carry. New Orleans has been most effective in shutting down opposing running backs, holding them to a 62.9% completion rate (#1-lowest). New Orleans has been least effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, giving up a 68.4% completion rate (#8-highest).

New Orleans Saints Insights

• The New Orleans Saints will be forced to start backup QB Andy Dalton this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.

• Taysom Hill has thrown for significantly fewer yards per game (8.0) this year than he did last year (77.0).

• The Sharp Model projects Taysom Hill to run for 0.20 touchdowns in this contest, on average, putting him in the 100th percentile among wide receivers and tight ends.

Arizona Cardinals Insights

• The Sharp Model projects Kyler Murray to be a more integral piece of his team's rushing attack this week (23.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (15.8% in games he has played).

• Zach Ertz has compiled many more air yards this season (62.0 per game) than he did last season (52.0 per game).

• The New Orleans Saints pass defense has been quite strong when opposing TEs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.62 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-least in the league.

Betting Trends

• The Arizona Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+7.10 Units / 74% ROI)

• The New Orleans Saints have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+5.10 Units / 26% ROI)

• James Conner has hit the Carries Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 78% ROI)