Minnesota Vikings vs New Orleans Saints Matchup Preview - October 2nd, 2022

The New Orleans Saints come in as 4.0 point home underdog as they play the Minnesota Vikings at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium Sunday. The last time these two teams played was in Week 16 of 2020. That contest produced a high scoring shootout, as the Saints pulled off the home win 52-33.

New Orleans's primary advantage has been their defense, which has allowed a scant 316 yards per game -- #6-best in the NFL. They've succeeded in large part due to their run defense, which has held opposing ground attacks to the #1-least yards per game: 3.91. To give credit where credit is due, their pass defense has also been terrific, checking in at #7 in yards per target (7.22). New Orleans gets full marks because they haven't even sold out to stop the run the way many teams do. They've played with the standard seven men in the box 13.5% of the time this year. While many teams bring an extra defender up near the line of scrimmage to stop the run, the Saints have employed this tactic the #9-least in football. This Saints run defense has been anchored by their defensive ends, who grade out as the #2-best unit in the NFL. This presents a decided advantage for New Orleans given that the Vikings have had so little success running the ball this year, managing a mere 4.34 yards per carry (#20-worst in the league). When it comes to their offense, the Saints check in at #29 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 209 yards per game (#28 in football). Their run game has ranked #29 with 3.52 yards per attempt on the ground.

Minnesota's biggest weakness has been their defense, ranking #29 in the league while allowing 383 yards per game. Much of their struggle has come in trying to lock down the pass game, as they've allowed opposing QBs pass for the #5-most yards per game: 254. They've had a hard time getting to the quarterback quickly, taking 2.56 seconds after the snap (on average) before applying pressure -- #3-slowest in the league. The Vikings have been at their worst when it comes to shutting down opposing wide receivers, allowing them to rack up 176 yards per game (#3-worst). Minnesota's worst position group in coverage has been their cornerbacks, which rank just #32 in the league in locking down route-runners. In terms of their offense, the Vikings have ranked #13 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 254 yards per game (#14 in football). On the ground they've ranked #13 with 4.34 yards per carry.

Minnesota Vikings Insights

• The Sharp Model projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 134.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

• Kirk Cousins's passing precision has diminished this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 64.8% to 61.6%.

• The Minnesota Vikings pass defense has been particularly weak when opposing running backs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 12.26 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 8th-most in football.

New Orleans Saints Insights

• The New Orleans Saints have played in the 6th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to lead to lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing offense effectiveness when facing windier conditions in this week's game.

• Juwan Johnson has posted a colossal 23.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 77th percentile among tight ends.

• The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on a measly 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in football). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

Betting Trends

• The New Orleans Saints have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games (+5.15 Units / 37% ROI)

• The Minnesota Vikings have hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.90 Units / 51% ROI)

• K.J. Osborn has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 12 games (+5.20 Units / 33% ROI)