Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers Matchup Preview - October 3rd, 2022


Monday Night Football will showcase a matchup between the Los Angeles Rams (2-1) and San Francisco 49ers (1-2). Oddsmakers peg the 49ers as the slight favorite with an implied win probablity of 53%, leaving the Rams with a 47% chance to record a win. The current spread is the 49ers -2.0 with a Game Total of 42.0.

Los Angeles's biggest strength has been their offense, ranking #3 in the league with 423 yards per game. They've achieved offensive success largely through the quality of their passing attack, which is #3-best in football with 330 yards per game. It's no wonder they've done so well through the air when their offensive line ranks #5 in the league in pass protection. In terms of their defense, the Rams have ranked #14 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 238 yards per game through the air against them (#19 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #3 with 3.98 yards per carry. Los Angeles has been most effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, holding them to 7.09 yards per target (#10-best). Los Angeles has been least effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, giving up a 72.5% completion rate (#5-highest).

San Francisco's primary advantage has been their defense, which has allowed a scant 308 yards per game -- #2-best in the NFL. They've succeeded in large part due to their run defense, which has held opposing ground attacks to the #1-least yards per game: 3.91. To give credit where credit is due, their pass defense has also been terrific, checking in at #10 in yards per target (7.39). This 49ers run defense has been anchored by their linebackers, who grade out as the #3-best unit in the NFL. When it comes to their offense, the 49ers check in at #12 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 268 yards per game (#11 in football). Their run game has ranked #11 with 4.39 yards per attempt on the ground.

Los Angeles Rams Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects Matthew Stafford to be a more important option in his team's running game this week (6.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).

  • The Los Angeles Rams defensive ends rank as the best group of DEs in the league since the start of last season in regard to pass rush.

  • The Sharp Model projects Cooper Kupp to total 0.55 receiving TDs this week, on average, placing him in the 99th percentile among wide receivers.

San Francisco 49ers Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects the 49ers to run the 8th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

  • Jimmy Garoppolo's passing precision has declined this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 68.2% to 63.4%.

  • The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has excelled when opposing WRs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.07 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 6th-least in football.

Betting Trends

  • The San Francisco 49ers have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 15 games (+8.70 Units / 53% ROI)

  • The Los Angeles Rams have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.30 Units / 24% ROI)

  • Jimmy Garoppolo has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.25 Units / 42% ROI)