Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers Matchup Preview - October 3rd, 2022
Monday Night Football will showcase a matchup between the Los Angeles Rams (2-1) and San Francisco 49ers (1-2). Oddsmakers peg the 49ers as the slight favorite with an implied win probablity of 53%, leaving the Rams with a 47% chance to record a win. The current spread is the 49ers -2.0 with a Game Total of 42.0.
Los Angeles's biggest strength has been their offense, ranking #3 in the league with 423 yards per game. They've achieved offensive success largely through the quality of their passing attack, which is #3-best in football with 330 yards per game. It's no wonder they've done so well through the air when their offensive line ranks #5 in the league in pass protection. In terms of their defense, the Rams have ranked #14 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 238 yards per game through the air against them (#19 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #3 with 3.98 yards per carry. Los Angeles has been most effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, holding them to 7.09 yards per target (#10-best). Los Angeles has been least effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, giving up a 72.5% completion rate (#5-highest).
San Francisco's primary advantage has been their defense, which has allowed a scant 308 yards per game -- #2-best in the NFL. They've succeeded in large part due to their run defense, which has held opposing ground attacks to the #1-least yards per game: 3.91. To give credit where credit is due, their pass defense has also been terrific, checking in at #10 in yards per target (7.39). This 49ers run defense has been anchored by their linebackers, who grade out as the #3-best unit in the NFL. When it comes to their offense, the 49ers check in at #12 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 268 yards per game (#11 in football). Their run game has ranked #11 with 4.39 yards per attempt on the ground.
Los Angeles Rams Insights
The Sharp Model projects Matthew Stafford to be a more important option in his team's running game this week (6.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).
The Los Angeles Rams defensive ends rank as the best group of DEs in the league since the start of last season in regard to pass rush.
The Sharp Model projects Cooper Kupp to total 0.55 receiving TDs this week, on average, placing him in the 99th percentile among wide receivers.
San Francisco 49ers Insights
The Sharp Model projects the 49ers to run the 8th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Jimmy Garoppolo's passing precision has declined this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 68.2% to 63.4%.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has excelled when opposing WRs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.07 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 6th-least in football.
The San Francisco 49ers have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 15 games (+8.70 Units / 53% ROI)
The Los Angeles Rams have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.30 Units / 24% ROI)
Jimmy Garoppolo has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.25 Units / 42% ROI)