Los Angeles Chargers vs Arizona Cardinals Matchup Preview - November 27th, 2022

Editor

Sunday the Los Angeles Chargers (5-5) will battle the Arizona Cardinals (4-7). Oddsmakers peg the Chargers as the favorite with an implied win probablity of 57%, leaving the Cardinals with a 43% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Chargers -2.5 with a Game Total of 49.0.

Los Angeles's biggest weakness has been their run defense, ranking #32 in the league while allowing 5.89 yards per game on the ground. Perhaps part of their struggle has been because they haven't stacked the box the way teams often do to try and plug up their run game issues. They've brought up a safety or extra defender just 13.8% of the time this year, #10-least of any team in football. The Chargers defensive ends have played a big part in their inability to stop the run, ranking #3-worst in the NFL by this measure. In terms of their offense, the Chargers have ranked #12 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 270 yards per game (#6 in football). On the ground they've ranked #26 with 3.99 yards per carry.

Arizona's primary disadvantage has been their defense, which has allowed a monstrous 366 yards per game this year, sliding them into the #7 spot among the league's worst. Much of their struggle has come in trying to shut down the run game, as they've allowed opposing ball-carriers to rush for the #6-most yards per carry: 5.14. Cardinals linebackers are perhaps most responsible for their dismal run defense this year, given that they grade out as the #2-worst unit in the NFL. When it comes to their offense, the Cardinals check in at #19 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 248 yards per game (#9 in football). Their run game has ranked #23 with 4.1 yards per attempt on the ground.

Los Angeles Chargers Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects Justin Herbert to be a more important option in his team's run game this week (14.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (3.3% in games he has played).

  • Gerald Everett has posted quite a few more air yards this season (43.0 per game) than he did last season (22.0 per game).

  • The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has been vulnerable when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, allowing an average of 5.78 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-most in football.

Arizona Cardinals Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 133.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

  • The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers rank as the 7th-best group of LBs in the league this year in pass coverage.

  • The Arizona Cardinals have gone no-huddle on 35.9% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (most in the league). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.

Betting Trends

  • The Arizona Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.70 Units / 54% ROI)

  • The Los Angeles Chargers have covered the Spread in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.85 Units / 58% ROI)

  • Justin Herbert has hit the Interceptions Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+6.45 Units / 37% ROI)