Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans Matchup Preview - October 23rd, 2022

Matt Ryan and the Indianapolis Colts faceoff against Ryan Tannehill and the Tennessee Titans. The Titans enter the game as a favorite (-140) as the home team. Tennessee is currently favored by -2.5 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 41.5.

Tennessee's primary disadvantage this season has been their offense, which has ranked #32 in football with a low 158 yards per game. They've been so ineffective on offense in large part because of their aerial attack, clocking in at #32 in the league with just 65 yards per game. One consequence of this ineffectiveness has been the ability for opposing defenses to stack the box against them to stop the run, bringing up at least one extra defender 26.4% of the time. And if the opposing defense doesn't need to go all out to stop the passing game, they can focus more on stopping the run, which has led Tennessee managing just 3.88 yards per carry -- bottom 10 in the league. Partially to blame is Tennessee's offensive line, which has given the quarterback very little protection, ranking just #29 in the NFL. When it comes to their defense, the Titans check in at #28 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 322 yards per game against Tennessee this year (#32 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #11 against them with 4.49 yards per ground attempt. This Titans defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing running backs, keeping them in check at just 4.65 yards per target (#6-best in the league). Tennessee's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, who have scorched them for 84 yards per game (#1-worst in the league).

Indianapolis's biggest strength has been their offense, ranking #5 in the league with 253 yards per game. They've achieved offensive success largely through the quality of their passing attack, which is #4-best in football with 173 yards per game. This represents a particular advantage for Indianapolis given that the Titans have struggled so much to stop the pass this year, allowing 9.83 yards per target (#1-worst in the league). In terms of their defense, the Colts have ranked #15 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 226 yards per game through the air against them (#14 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #13 with 4.53 yards per carry. Indianapolis has been most effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, holding them to 125 yards per game (#1-best). Indianapolis has been least effective in shutting down opposing running backs, giving up 7.43 yards per target (#5-worst).

Indianapolis Colts Insights

• The Sharp Model projects this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

• The Tennessee Titans defensive tackles grade out as the 3rd-best collection of DTs in the NFL this year in regard to pass rush.

• The Indianapolis Colts have used play action on 33.6% of their passing plays since the start of last season (5th-most in the league), causing the defense to bite on the run and resulting in much higher passing production.

Tennessee Titans Insights

• The Tennessee Titans O-line ranks as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all air attack statistics across the board.

• Dontrell Hilliard has posted quite a few more receiving yards per game (34.0) this year than he did last year (12.0).

• The Sharp Model projects Derrick Henry to rush for 0.88 touchdowns this week, on average, ranking in the 100th percentile among RBs.

Betting Trends

• The Tennessee Titans have hit the 1H Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.55 Units / 17% ROI)

• The Indianapolis Colts have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 11 games (+8.90 Units / 74% ROI)

• Matt Ryan has hit the Completions Under in 8 of his last 10 away games (+5.60 Units / 44% ROI)