Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars Matchup Preview - September 18th, 2022

Editor

Sunday the Indianapolis Colts (0-0-1) will battle the Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1). Oddsmakers peg the Colts as the favorite with an implied win probablity of 59%, leaving the Jaguars with a 41% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Colts -3.0 with a Game Total of 45.0.

Jacksonville's primary advantage has been their run offense, which ranks #1 in football at 5.49 yards per carry. The most important component of a strong ground game is a good offensive line. If the line isn't opening up holes and creating space, it doesn't matter how good a team's running backs are. To that point, Jacksonville's line ranks #8-best in the league in run blocking. When it comes to their defense, the Jaguars check in at #17 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 236 yards per game against Jacksonville this year (#20 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #14 against them with 4.43 yards per ground attempt. This Jaguars defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, keeping them in check at just 7.34 yards per target (#3-best in the league). Jacksonville's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, who have scorched them for 64 yards per game (#1-worst in the league).

Indianapolis's biggest strength has been their rushing offense, ranking #1 in the league with 5.49 yards per carry. The key component of any team's ground game is their offensive line. The best running back can't do much if the line doesn't open up holes for them, and a worst running back can find success if he's given open space. Indianapolis's o-line ranks #8-best in this regard. In terms of their defense, the Colts have ranked #17 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 236 yards per game through the air against them (#20 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #14 with 4.43 yards per carry. Indianapolis has been most effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, holding them to 7.34 yards per target (#3-best). Indianapolis has been least effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, giving up 64 yards per game (#1-worst).

Indianapolis Colts Insights

  • THE BLITZ projects the Colts to run the 6th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 64.9 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

  • Matt Ryan's throwing accuracy has worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 66.8% to 63.3%.

  • The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has been quite strong when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.26 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 4th-least in the league.

Jacksonville Jaguars Insights

  • The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.6% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).

  • Jamycal Hasty has totaled a monstrous 7.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 94th percentile among RBs.

  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have elected to go for it on 4th down 23.0% of the time since the start of last season (8th-most in football), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Betting Trends

  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.50 Units / 35% ROI)

  • The Indianapolis Colts have scored first in 11 of their last 14 games (+5.80 Units / 27% ROI)

  • Michael Pittman has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 8 of his last 9 away games (+6.95 Units / 66% ROI)