Houston Texans vs Las Vegas Raiders Matchup Preview - October 23rd, 2022

The Houston Texans come in as 7.0 point road underdog as they travel to Allegiant Stadium to play the Las Vegas Raiders. The last time these two teams played each other was Week 8 in 2019. That game resulted in a road win for the Texans with a final score of 27-24.

Las Vegas's primary advantage has been their run offense, which ranks #1 in football at 5.6 yards per carry. The most important component of a strong ground game is a good offensive line. If the line isn't opening up holes and creating space, it doesn't matter how good a team's running backs are. To that point, Las Vegas's line ranks #1-best in the league in run blocking. When it comes to their defense, the Raiders check in at #22 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 279 yards per game against Las Vegas this year (#26 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #9 against them with 4.34 yards per ground attempt. This Raiders defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing running backs, allowing them to complete just 74.3% of their passes (#10-lowest in the league). Las Vegas's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, who have scorched them for 184 yards per game (#5-worst in the league).

Houston's biggest weakness has been their offense, ranking #28 in the league with a mere 169 yards per game. They've failed so much on offense in large part because of their passing attack, which checks in at #3-worst in football with 73 yards per game. In terms of their defense, the Texans have ranked #30 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 268 yards per game through the air against them (#23 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #25 with 5.09 yards per carry. Houston has been most effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, holding them to a 59.4% completion rate (#3-lowest). Houston has been least effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, giving up 65 yards per game (#6-worst).

Houston Texans Insights

• The Sharp Model projects the Houston Texans to be the 8th-fastest paced defense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 27.75 seconds per snap.

• Rex Burkhead's play as a receiver has gotten better this year, notching 3.6 yards per game compared to a mere 1.8 last year.

• The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has been quite strong when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.62 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-least in the NFL.

Las Vegas Raiders Insights

• This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

• Davante Adams has compiled far more air yards this season (127.0 per game) than he did last season (102.0 per game).

• The Las Vegas Raiders have gone no-huddle on a measly 4.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-least in football). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

Betting Trends

• The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.70 Units / 35% ROI)

• The Houston Texans have covered the Spread in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.85 Units / 39% ROI)

• Josh Jacobs has hit the Receptions Over in 10 of his last 16 games (+4.70 Units / 27% ROI)