Green Bay Packers vs Washington Commanders Matchup Preview - October 23rd, 2022

Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers faceoff against Taylor Heinicke and the Washington Commanders. The Packers enter the game as a big favorite (-210) despite being on the road. Green Bay is currently favored by -4.0 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 41.5.

Washington's primary disadvantage this season has been their offense, which has ranked #29 in football with a low 167 yards per game. They've been so ineffective on offense in large part because of their ground attack, clocking in at #27 in the league with just 3.74 yards per carry. The most important component of a strong ground game is a good offensive line. If the line isn't opening up holes and creating space, it doesn't matter how good a team's running backs are. Unfortunately for Washington, their line ranks #5-worst in the league in run blocking. Perhaps because they routinely failt to successfully establish the run, Washington has also lacked effectiveness through the air. They've scraped together a measly 6.76 yards per target, ranking the bottom 10 in football. When it comes to their defense, the Commanders check in at #23 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 256 yards per game against Washington this year (#20 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #19 against them with 4.76 yards per ground attempt. This Commanders defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, allowing them to complete just 56.8% of their passes (#3-lowest in the league). Washington's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, who have scorched them for 10.18 yards per target (#2-worst in the league).

Green Bay's biggest strength has been their defense, ranking #8 in the league while allowing just 328 yards per game. Much of their success has been in locking down the pass game, holding opposing QBs to the #2-least yards per game: 189. The Packers have done the best job shutting down opposing wide receivers, holding them to 129 yards per game (#4-best). Green Bay's best position group in coverage has been their linebackers, which rank #3 in the league in locking down route-runners. Green Bay's pass rush has been strong this year, led by their defensive tackles, which check in as the #1-best unit in terms of getting to the passer. This represents a particular advantage for Green Bay given that the Commanders have struggled so much with their pass game this year, managing just 6.76 yards per target (#9-worst in the league). In terms of their offense, the Packers have ranked #9 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 130 yards per game (#16 in football). On the ground they've ranked #12 with 4.63 yards per carry.

Green Bay Packers Insights

• The Sharp Model projects the Green Bay Packers as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 60.1% red zone pass rate.

• Aaron Rodgers's pass-game efficiency has worsened this season, averaging a mere 7.07 yards-per-target vs a 8.15 rate last season.

• The Sharp Model projects Aaron Jones to accumulate 0.15 receiving touchdowns in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 94th percentile among running backs.

Washington Commanders Insights

• The Sharp Model projects Taylor Heinicke to be a more integral piece of his offense's rushing attack this week (12.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (1.8% in games he has played).

• Terry McLaurin has posted quite a few less air yards this season (78.0 per game) than he did last season (103.0 per game).

• The Green Bay Packers defense has been vulnerable when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 7.23 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-most in football.

Betting Trends

• The Washington Commanders have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.50 Units / 35% ROI)

• The Green Bay Packers have hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.70 Units / 25% ROI)

• Taylor Heinicke has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+3.40 Units / 33% ROI)