Detroit Lions vs Dallas Cowboys Matchup Preview - October 23rd, 2022

The Detroit Lions come in as 7.0 point road underdog as they travel to AT&T Stadium to play the Dallas Cowboys. The last time these two teams played each other was Week 11 in 2019. That game resulted in a home win for the Cowboys with a final score of 35-27.

Dallas's primary advantage has been their defense, which has allowed a scant 317 yards per game -- #6-best in the NFL. They've succeeded in large part due to their pass defense, which has held opposing air attacks to the #3-least yards per game: 198. A big factor in their success has been the ability to shed blocks and get to the quarterback quickly; they've averaged just 2.39 seconds after the snap before getting pressure on the QB -- #5-quickest in the league. The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has had the most success in covering opposing tight ends, who have managed just 4.15 yards per target against them (#32-least in football). Dallas's best coverage unit has been their safeties, which grade out as the #5 unit in the NFL in this regard. Dallas's pass rush has been led by their linebackers who, ranking as the #5 unit in the NFL, have given opposing quarterbacks fits. When it comes to their offense, the Cowboys check in at #17 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 106 yards per game (#20 in football). Their run game has ranked #18 with 4.35 yards per attempt on the ground.

Detroit's biggest weakness has been their defense, ranking #32 in the league while allowing 439 yards per game. Much of their struggle has come in trying to shut down the run game, as they've allowed opposing ball-carriers to rush for the #2-most yards per carry: 5.77. That's not to give any unnecessary credit to their pass defense, though, which checks in at #3-worst in yards per target (8.99). In terms of their offense, the Lions have ranked #8 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 115 yards per game (#19 in football). On the ground they've ranked #4 with 5.28 yards per carry.

Detroit Lions Insights

• This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

• The Dallas Cowboys safeties project as the 4th-best safety corps in football this year with their pass rush.

• The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has excelled when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, giving up an average of 3.78 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-least in the NFL.

Dallas Cowboys Insights

• The Sharp Model projects Dak Prescott to be a more important option in his team's rushing attack this week (10.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (4.2% in games he has played).

• Dak Prescott has been among the leading passers in the league since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 265.0 yards per game while grading out in the 90th percentile.

• The Dallas Cowboys have gone no-huddle on 12.6% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, resulting in more volume and stat-padding.

Betting Trends

• The Dallas Cowboys have covered the Spread in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.65 Units / 33% ROI)

• The Detroit Lions have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.75 Units / 35% ROI)

• Amon-Ra St. Brown has hit the Receptions Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+7.25 Units / 51% ROI)