December 28 Bowl games and TNF

The Bottom Line article will lead us in making the right call on high-profile games. I will cover TNF, SNF, and MNF. I will also cover big baseball games, the NBA, and the NHL.

We have a busy schedule in Football on Thursday with 4 bowl games and our primetime TNF between the flying high Browns hosting the Jets.

Let's take a look at all 5 games.

SMU vs. Boston College: A Clash of Ground Game Mastery

In the upcoming football matchup between SMU and Boston College, fans are in for a treat with both teams at full strength, a rarity in a season riddled with opt-outs and transfers. This game not only promises excitement but also offers an intriguing study in line movements and team dynamics.

Line Movements and Betting Trends

SMU, with a strong finish to the season, opened as a -10.5 favorite, with the line oscillating between -9.5 to -11. Despite fluctuating weather conditions impacting the total, dropping it from 52.5 to 47.5, sharp money is seen on both sides. However, the sharps seem to lean towards SMU, a team finishing the season with 9 straight wins and a conference championship under its belt.

Team Analysis and Matchup Dynamics

Boston College: The Eagles' run-heavy offense, steered by dual-threat quarterback Thomas Castellanos, has been efficient but lacks in the passing game. Castellanos, with 957 rushing yards and 2,146 passing yards, is a force but is prone to turnovers, as indicated by his 13 interceptions and 23 turnover-worthy plays.

SMU: In contrast, SMU boasts a robust defense, particularly against the run.. Their ability to counter both run and pass effectively, with top 10 marks in PPA per pass and pass success, puts them in a favorable position against Boston College’s one-dimensional attack.

Strategic Edges

SMU's run game, featuring three backs poised to exploit Boston College's weaker rush defense, ranked 98th in PPA per rush. The Mustangs also benefit from backup quarterback Kevin Jennings, adding versatility to their ground attack.

Home Field Advantage vs. Trench Dominance

Despite the game being close to Boston College's home turf, SMU is expected to have an advantage in the trenches, crucial in the windy conditions forecasted for the day. Boston College’s struggle to maintain consistent offensive momentum over four quarters, especially against SMU's havoc-generating defense, could be a decisive factor.

Conclusion: SMU’s Edge in Efficiency and Defense

The matchup tilts in favor of SMU, not only because of their efficient offense but also due to their top tier defense against a Boston College team that struggles in passing. My leans is to lay the points with the Mustangs, expecting them to not just cover the spread but also to showcase their prowess on both sides of the ball.

Rutgers vs. Miami Florida: A Battle of Adaptation and Motivation

In the upcoming Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium, Rutgers and Miami Florida face off in a game that promises to be as much about overcoming challenges as it is about football strategy. With the line movements favoring Rutgers and Miami facing significant player losses, this matchup is shaping up to be a test of resilience and adaptability.

Line Movements and Betting Trends

Rutgers, initially an underdog at +1, has seen a shift in their favor, with the line now at -2. This change reflects the betting community's response to Miami Florida's challenges, notably their weakened quarterback position due to transfers and injuries. Miami opened at -4.5 but has been significantly impacted by the transfer portal.

Weather and Player Opt-Outs: The Disruptive Factors

The outdoor northeastern setting of Yankee Stadium, with its cool and rainy forecast, may prove more disruptive to Miami, accustomed to warmer climates. Additionally, player opt-outs are hitting Miami harder, with significant losses on both offense and defense, including their starting quarterback.

Team Strategies and Defensive Stance

Miami Florida: With a backup quarterback at the helm and a depleted defense, Miami will likely struggle. The absence of key defensive players, including safeties James Williams and Kamren Kinchens, could hinder their ability to contain Rutgers.

Rutgers: Known for their ground-based offense, Rutgers is expected to focus on their running game. Their defense, ranking 10th in passing yards allowed, should make Miami one-dimensional, and with the Hurricane defense weakened, Rutgers might find more room to maneuver.

Motivation and Game Dynamics

Rutgers appears to have more at stake in this game, with coach Greg Schiano looking to use this opportunity as a springboard for future recruitment and team morale. Conversely, Miami, having hoped for more than a Pinstripe Bowl appearance, might struggle with motivation.

Statistics and Predictions

Rutgers' impressive record under Schiano in nonconference games adds weight to their chances. Despite their unremarkable offense, quarterback Gavin Wimsatt’s running ability could prove challenging for Miami's depleted defense.

Conclusion: Rutgers’ Edge in Motivation and Stability

Given the circumstances, Rutgers seems poised to capitalize on Miami’s vulnerabilities. The combination of Rutgers' motivation, Miami’s quarterback dilemma, and defensive opt-outs tilt the odds in favor of the Scarlet Knights. Expect Rutgers to emerge victorious in a close, low-scoring encounter, capitalizing on Miami's challenges and their own strategic strengths.

NC State vs. Kansas State: A Battle of Adaptability in the Pop-Tarts Bowl

The upcoming Pop-Tarts Bowl featuring NC State and Kansas State presents a unique challenge for handicappers. With both teams experiencing significant changes in their quarterback and key receiver positions, this game is shaping up to be a test of adaptability and team depth.

Line Movements and Betting Dynamics

Initially, Kansas State opened as a -5.5 favorite, but the number has since dropped to -2. This movement reflects the uncertainties surrounding both teams, particularly with new quarterbacks taking the helm. In the volatile landscape of bowl games, late line movements are crucial indicators, often influenced by sharp money, as seen in other bowl games like Coastal Carolina’s underdog win in the Hawaii Bowl.

Team Analysis and Strategy

Kansas State: Under the leadership of coach Chris Klieman, known for his emphasis on defense and a physical ground game, Kansas State is expected to maintain its strategic identity. The Wildcats boast an experienced offensive line which is a plus for them. This seasoned line will be crucial in supporting quarterback Will Howard in his starting debut.

NC State: NC State, mirroring Kansas State, also faces the challenge of fielding a new starting quarterback. The dynamics of their offensive and defensive strategies in the absence of their regular QB and team leaders at WR and TE will be key to their performance.

The Challenge of Prediction

This game stands as one of the toughest to predict in the bowl season, with many outcomes so far defying expectations. The debut of new quarterbacks for both teams adds a layer of unpredictability, making it a wild card matchup.

Conclusion: A Game of Uncertainties and Opportunities

In a matchup where traditional handicapping methods may fall short, the focus shifts to the depth and adaptability of each team. Kansas State's experienced offensive line and NC State's response to their new on-field dynamics will be crucial. In the end, this Pop-Tarts Bowl matchup promises to be as much about resilience and strategic flexibility as it is about football prowess.

Arizona vs. Oklahoma: A Tale of Unexpected Twists and Rising Stars in the Alamo Bowl

In the Alamo Bowl, Arizona and Oklahoma present a fascinating matchup that's as much about adapting to unexpected changes as it is about football prowess. With line movements reflecting the uncertain dynamics and key players opting out or transferring, this game is set to be a showcase of resilience and emergent talent.

Line Movements and Betting Dynamics

The betting line for this game has been particularly volatile. Arizona opened at -2 but quickly moved to -3.5 amidst sharp interest. Subsequent buyback on Oklahoma saw the line fluctuate, eventually settling at -3. This constant back-and-forth movement indicates a struggle among bettors to gauge the impact of key player changes, particularly Oklahoma's quarterback situation.

Team Analysis and Strategy

Oklahoma: The Sooners face a significant shift with star quarterback Dillon Gabriel transferring to Oregon. Freshman quarterback Jackson Arnold, steps into the spotlight. Despite his limited collegiate snaps, Arnold's promising performance and the retained core of Oklahoma's offense, including receivers Drake Stoops and Nic Anderson, offer optimism.

Arizona: The Wildcats have been a revelation this season, largely due to quarterback Noah Fifita's efficiency and a vastly improved defense. Their six-game winning streak to finish the regular season underscores a remarkable turnaround for a program that had been struggling.

Game Dynamics and Key Players

This matchup is poised to highlight the national emergence of Jackson Arnold. His poise and potential, combined with Oklahoma coach Brent Venables' defensive depth, present a challenge for Arizona. Conversely, Arizona, under coach Jedd Fisch, has shown significant offensive prowess and momentum, with a six-game winning streak and a high-scoring offense.

Predictions and Expectations

While Arizona's momentum and experienced quarterback are significant assets, Arnold's potential for a breakout performance cannot be overlooked. Oklahoma, despite being the underdog and dealing with Gabriel's transfer, seems to be in solid standing. This game could very well be a platform for Arnold to begin a new era for Oklahoma, a program known for its elite quarterbacks.

Conclusion: A Clash of Promise and Potential

In the end, this game is expected to be a close contest, with both teams bringing unique strengths to the field. Arizona's consistent performance and Oklahoma's resilience and potential for surprise make this one of the more intriguing matchups of the bowl season. The spotlight will be on Arnold as he seeks to lead Oklahoma to victory and mark the beginning of a new chapter for the Sooners and no one can say how he will handle this national exposure.

Jets vs. Browns: A Clash of Momentum and Defensive Prowess

The Thursday Night Football matchup between the New York Jets and the Cleveland Browns offers an intriguing contrast in team dynamics, with the Browns emerging as clear favorites both in public sentiment and according to my betting model.

Line Movements and Betting Trends

The line for the game has seen a shift from the Browns at -5.5 to -7.5, aligning with a model prediction that favors the Browns by 7. This movement indicates a strong belief in the Browns' capabilities against a Jets team that has struggled with consistency.

Analyzing Team Strengths and Weaknesses

New York Jets: Despite squeezing past the Commanders last week, the Jets, led by quarterback Trevor Siemien, face skepticism about their ability to replicate a 30-point performance against the Browns, particularly on the road in Cleveland. The Jets are 1-7 against the spread in their last eight games, highlighting their recent struggles.

Cleveland Browns: The Browns have shown solid form in recent weeks under quarterback Joe Flacco. Covering the spread against the Jaguars, Bears, and Texans, they are seen as a team still vying for playoff contention. With standout players like Amari Cooper and David Njoku finding their rhythm, Cleveland's offense appears to have hit a new high.

Defensive Dynamics

Cleveland's defense, ranking first in the league in Defensive DVOA, poses a significant challenge for the Jets, especially against the run. This matchup is particularly unfavorable for the Jets’ running back Breece Hall, further complicating their offensive strategy.

Key Factors and Predictions

The decisive factor in this game will likely be whether the Browns can score enough points to cover the spread against a Jets defense that, while strong, may struggle to maintain high-level performance given the team’s overall trajectory. With Joe Flacco excelling in Kevin Stefanski’s offensive system and key players like Cooper and Njoku thriving, Cleveland's offense is expected to be effective.

Conclusion: Favoring the Browns in a Game of Preparation and Skill

Considering the Jets' offensive limitations and the Browns' recent form and defensive strengths, it’s projected that the Browns will not only win but also cover the spread. The short week's preparation and the superior coaching of the Browns are expected to play a crucial role in this outcome.

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