Colts vs Falcons Betting Trends, Odds, and Insights - December 24th, 2023

a year ago

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The Indianapolis Colts are set to take on the Atlanta Falcons in an exciting matchup at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET. The Colts, with a record of 8-6 this season, have surpassed expectations and are having a relatively great season. In their last game, they secured a victory against the Pittsburgh Steelers with a score of 30-13.

On the other hand, the Falcons, with a record of 6-8, have been struggling as of late, losing six of their last ten games. In their previous game, they suffered a narrow defeat against the Carolina Panthers, with a final score of 9-7.

The last time these two teams faced each other was in Week 3 of the 2019 season, resulting in a thrilling matchup that came down to a single field goal. The Colts emerged victorious with a 27-24 win on their home turf.

Heading into this game, the Colts have the advantage of an extra day of rest, which allows them more time to prepare and recover their strength. The Falcons, on the other hand, will be playing on normal rest. This extra rest may give the Colts an edge over their opponents.

According to the odds, the Falcons are considered the slight favorites at home. The sportsbooks give them a 59% chance of winning the game, while the Colts have a 41% chance. The current spread stands at Falcons -3, which is a significant move of 3 points and suggests that sharp bettors are favoring the Falcons in this matchup.

It's worth noting that the Colts have been playing solid football recently, winning four out of their last five games. The Falcons, on the other hand, have struggled to find consistency.

As these teams face off once again, fans can expect an exciting contest between the Colts and the Falcons. With the Colts exceeding expectations and the Falcons looking to bounce back, it will be interesting to see how this game unfolds.

Colts Insights

The model projects Trey Sermon to be a more important option in his offense's rushing attack in this game (18.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (8.1% in games he has played).
After accruing 18.0 air yards per game last year, Kylen Granson has produced significantly more this year, currently sitting at 25.0 per game.
This year, the stout Falcons defense has surrendered the 3rd-least yards-after-the-catch in the league to the opposing side: a puny 4.1 YAC.

Falcons Insights

The projections expect this game to have the most plays run among all games this week at 138.7 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
When it comes to defensive tackles pass-rushing, Indianapolis's collection of DTs has been great this year, profiling as the 3rd-best in the NFL.
In logging a miserable rate of 207.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year, the 9th-worst passing offense in the NFL has been the Atlanta Falcons.

Betting Trends

The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games at home (+3.60 Units / 30% ROI)
The Indianapolis Colts have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 away games (+3.30 Units / 26% ROI)
Tyler Allgeier has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.55 Units / 57% ROI)