Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens Matchup Preview - October 23rd, 2022

The Cleveland Browns come in as 6.5 point road underdog as they travel to M&T Bank Stadium to play the Baltimore Ravens. It was a thriller the last time these two teams played each other in Week 14 of the 2021 season. The Browns pulled off a road win, outscoring the Ravens 24-22. The Game Total for that game was 44.0 and which the Over hit.

Cleveland's biggest strength has been their offense, ranking #4 in the league with 286 yards per game. They've achieved offensive success largely through the quality of their rushing attack, which is #3-best in football with 5.34 yards per carry. The key component of any team's ground game is their offensive line. The best running back can't do much if the line doesn't open up holes for them, and a worst running back can find success if he's given open space. Cleveland's o-line ranks #1-best in this regard. In terms of their defense, the Browns have ranked #27 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 271 yards per game through the air against them (#25 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #29 with 5.51 yards per carry. Cleveland has been most effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, holding them to a 59.2% completion rate (#4-lowest). Cleveland has been least effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, giving up 9.79 yards per target (#3-worst).

Baltimore's primary disadvantage has been their defense, which has allowed a monstrous 402 yards per game this year, sliding them into the #7 spot among the league's worst. They've struggled in large part because they've been unable to keep opposing offenses from moving the chains via their pass attack. Opposing QBs have thrown for the #2-most yards per game (301) against the Ravens. Opposing tight ends have given the Ravens the most trouble, completing 84.3% of their targets (the #1-highest rate in football). Baltimore's coverage problems have been exacerbated by their cornerbacks, who rank just #23 in the league in locking down opposing pass-catchers. When it comes to their offense, the Ravens check in at #30 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 89 yards per game (#25 in football). Their run game has ranked #8 with 4.8 yards per attempt on the ground.

Cleveland Browns Insights

• The Cleveland Browns O-line grades out as the 2nd-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

• Amari Cooper has totaled quite a few more air yards this year (109.0 per game) than he did last year (79.0 per game).

• The Cleveland Browns have elected to go for it on 4th down 22.2% of the time since the start of last season (9th-most in football), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

Baltimore Ravens Insights

• The Sharp Model projects Lamar Jackson to be a more integral piece of his offense's run game this week (35.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (25.2% in games he has played).

• The Cleveland Browns linebackers project as the 7th-best unit in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

• The Sharp Model projects Lamar Jackson to run for 0.44 TDs this week, on average: the most of all quarterbacks.

Betting Trends

• The Baltimore Ravens have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.20 Units / 22% ROI)

• The Cleveland Browns have scored first in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.85 Units / 25% ROI)

• Jacoby Brissett has hit the TD Passes Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+4.55 Units / 25% ROI)