Bills vs Dolphins Betting Trends, Odds, and Insights - January 7th, 2024

a year ago

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In a highly anticipated divisional matchup, the Buffalo Bills will face off against the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium. Both teams will be fueled by the desire to secure a victory in this important game.

The Bills enter the matchup with a solid 10-6 record this season, showcasing their ability to perform consistently. They have been on a hot streak, winning their last four consecutive games. Their recent success has undoubtedly boosted their confidence, making them a force to be reckoned with.

On the other hand, the Dolphins have surpassed expectations this season with an impressive 11-5 record. Although they suffered a recent loss to the Baltimore Ravens, they have played solid football throughout the season, winning 10 of their last 15 games. The Dolphins will undoubtedly be looking to bounce back and prove their resilience.

The last time these two teams met was in Week 4 of this season, adding an element of revenge to this matchup. The Bills emerged victorious in their previous encounter, securing a dominant 48-20 home win against the Dolphins. The Bills' ability to score points was on full display, resulting in a blowout victory with a significant 28-point margin.

Despite being on the road, the Bills are considered slight favorites in this game. The odds currently suggest that they have a 59% chance of winning, while the Dolphins have a 41% chance of securing a victory. The spread has remained constant at Bills -3, indicating a relatively close matchup.

As kickoff approaches on Sunday at 8:20 PM ET, football fans can expect an intense battle between two divisional rivals. The Bills will aim to extend their winning streak, while the Dolphins will be determined to bounce back from their recent loss. All eyes will be on Hard Rock Stadium as these teams vie for divisional supremacy.

Bills Insights

While Latavius Murray has received 15.9% of his team's run game usage in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a much smaller part of Buffalo's running game in this contest at 2.1%.
Ty Johnson's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate rising from 57.3% to 100.0%.
The Buffalo Bills have ranked among the top offenses in the league this year (#5 overall), averaging a terrific 360.0 adjusted yards per game.

Dolphins Insights

The Miami O-line grades out as the 7th-best in the league last year at run-game blocking.
Tyreek Hill has totaled far fewer air yards this year (113.0 per game) than he did last year (131.0 per game).
The leading projections forecast Devon Achane to notch 0.20 receiving TDs in this week's contest, on balance, putting him in the 100th percentile among RBs.

Betting Trends

The Miami Dolphins have scored last in 12 of their last 18 games (+4.30 Units / 16% ROI)
Josh Allen has hit the Completions Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+4.85 Units / 26% ROI)