Atlanta Falcons vs Cincinnati Bengals Matchup Preview - October 23rd, 2022

Sunday the Atlanta Falcons (3-3) will battle the Cincinnati Bengals (3-3). Oddsmakers peg the Bengals as the huge favorite with an implied win probablity of 72%, leaving the Falcons with a 28% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Bengals -6.5 with a Game Total of 47.5.

Atlanta's biggest weakness has been their passing offense, ranking #31 in the league with a mere 71 yards per game. Perhaps because they haven't been able to move the ball through the air, defenses have been able to stack the box against them to help stop the run, bringing up an extra defender 17.6% of the time. This represents a particular disadvantage for Atlanta given that the Bengals have excelled in stopping the pass this year, allowing just 6.99 yards per target (#7-best in the league). In terms of their defense, the Falcons have ranked #25 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 282 yards per game through the air against them (#27 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #24 with 4.85 yards per carry. Atlanta has been most effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, holding them to 7.72 yards per target (#9-best). Atlanta has been least effective in shutting down opposing running backs, giving up a 91.8% completion rate (#2-highest).

Cincinnati's primary disadvantage this season has been their rushing offense, which has ranked #30 in football with a low 3.48 yards per carry. When it comes to their defense, the Bengals check in at #10 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 216 yards per game against Cincinnati this year (#9 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #16 against them with 4.64 yards per ground attempt. This Bengals defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing running backs, allowing them to complete just 65.5% of their passes (#2-lowest in the league). Cincinnati's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, who have caught 81.1% of their passes (#7-highest in the league).

Atlanta Falcons Insights

• The Atlanta Falcons O-line ranks as the 6th-best in the league this year in run blocking.

• Marcus Mariota has thrown for quite a few more yards per game (180.0) this year than he did last year (1.0).

• The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has performed very well when opposing WRs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.12 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-least in the league.

Cincinnati Bengals Insights

• The Cincinnati Bengals O-line ranks as the 6th-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all pass game metrics across the board.

• Ja'Marr Chase has accumulated quite a few less air yards this year (91.0 per game) than he did last year (109.0 per game).

• The Cincinnati Bengals have gone for it on 4th down a lowly 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (7th-least in football), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.

Betting Trends

• The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+5.85 Units / 54% ROI)

• The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.75 Units / 40% ROI)

• Cordarrelle Patterson has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.15 Units / 38% ROI)