NBA Bet of the Day | January 9, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 114-68-2, +36.93u
RECAP: We hammered out another winner, last night grabbing an outright win in Utah. We got the points along with it to once again skyrocket our yearly total to a massive near 37-unit profit. We’re 14-5 to begin the new year, up about 8 units of profit on the year so far. Let’s stay hot today in a smaller slate, but with plenty of value.

January 9, 2024

While the biggest NBA news of last night revolved around the trials of Ja Morant, the rest of the NBA world has to continue on – and the team that has to continue on, the Memphis Grizzlies, were well on their way to entering back into the Western Conference playoff race. Now, they’re going to have to do it without their biggest star. 

While the Grizzlies are definitely a team that’s going to have to figure it out without their star, the team on the other side, the Dallas Mavericks, have been putting together a nice little three game winning streak. The line is Dallas -8.5, but that’s not what we’re looking at today; we’re taking a look at our total in this game. 

The total opened at 234 and rose to 235 throughout the night, but has fluctuated. When we look at the money handles tool in the Sharp App, we are seeing that significant difference that we always look for; the over in this game has 40% of the betting handle, but a whopping 97% of the money handle. That’s a difference of 57% that we’re seeing, and Sharp AI agrees with us, putting their projections at 235.5. 

The most baffling statistic, though? This is the stuff I live for. The Grizzlies this season are historically unders winners, hitting the under in 21 out of their first 35 games. Yet… when this team is an away underdog, they are actually a crazy 9-7 when it comes to the over. Even though they are historically negative this season, this is the one situation where the over has hit more than it hasn’t. This is the loophole.

And it gets even better when we look at Dallas, who have dominated overs as home favorites this season, going 8-5. That’s a really good probability between these two teams, who are 1-1 on the year when facing each other in O/U. 

Finally, our stars are out tonight, and it shows in the Dallas offense. At home, they’re one of the top 3P shooting teams, and they rank sixth in overall scoring in their home arena. They can put up 120+ points in a hurry, and that’s with their usual starters, like Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic, being in and out of the lineups. 

These teams, the line movement, and the Sharp Money Handles all point towards the over. It’s the trifecta we always talk about, and we’re getting it again tonight. Let’s hope for points in Dallas tonight.

PICK: Memphis/Dallas over 235

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