NBA Bet of the Day | January 6, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 109-67-2, +33.42u
RECAP: Yesterday was one of the most positive days we’ve had at NBA of the Day, hitting on four out of five of our straight plays and adding 2.63 units of profit to our register for the year. Our NBA of the Day hit, and we nailed a couple spreads, a total, and a moneyline to make it one of the best days of the season for us. One play tonight, let’s ride.

January 6, 2024

I’ve been waiting patiently all day for a play to emerge using our method, and we finally have one in the dying hours of the evening - and it’s in our game between the Houston Rockets and the Milwaukee Bucks.

The Bucks are well-rested while the Rockets are coming off of a back-to-back in which they got trounced by the Timberwolves. Today, we’re looking for them to get a strong bounce-back performance out of their guys, as they’re taking on another juggernaut. 

The Rockets are actually in a profitable position this evening as they’re 6-4 as the home underdog ATS this season. That means that, even when they’re doubted, they can keep the game close; they actually cover ATS over 8 points per game in this situation, which is kind of crazy to think about - in the ten games in which this has been the situation, they go above that line by 8. Might even be a moneyline spot, although we’re getting them at that pivotal -7.5.

Milwaukee has been the away favorite in fifteen games this season, and they’re below .500 in that stretch ATS. We’re seeing them get 64% of the betting handle in tonight’s game, but only 40% of the money - meaning that we’re seeing a slight 24% difference in favor of Houston tonight. Sharp AI actually pegs this game as a difference of +6 in favor of the Bucks, meaning that we’ve got about a point and a half to work with. 

And it’s not without precedence; the Bucks are 15-19-1 ATS this season, and have been in a 4-6 stretch ATS in their last ten games. This is going to be a complete battle tonight, as the Houston defense is a menacing one - they rank second in FG percentage allowed at home, and second in the league in 3P% as well. In fact, this is a crazy battle in the scoring department of this game as well, because the Bucks score the second-most points per game on the season on the road. Guess who allows the second-least amount of points? The Houston Rockets. 

Houston closes out games really well, so even if they’re behind heading in to the fourth, they are the 6th-best scoring team in the 4th quarter. This is our only play of the night, and the only play that qualifies remotely close to my criteria, so we have to go with it. Let’s see if this surprising Houston team can stand up to the big bullies in Milwaukee.

PICK: Houston Rockets +7.5

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