NBA Bet of the Day | January 5, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 105-66-2, +30.79u
RECAP: We had our first losing day of 2024, going 1-2 on all of our bets. The “bad” days don’t hurt as bad because we manage our bankroll properly, and we only allow a certain number of bets to hurt us or help us on our journey through the NBA season. If you had the Wolves getting trounced on their home court on your bingo card, good for you - because I certainly didn’t see it coming! We had no picks yesterday, and we have a loaded slate today.

January 5, 2024

The Raptors are heading all the way across North America for their showdown with the Sacramento Kings in California, a game which features two teams that are still trying to find their identity as we ease into the halfway point of the NBA season. 

The Kings are a dominant home team, and the Raptors are a team that struggles to win on the road - but the emergence of Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett has shown that this is a much more talented team than meets the eye. In fact, both of these teams hit the over more than not, and it’s because of their potent offenses that this happens. 

Tonight though, we’re seeing significant movement on the over in this game. Not only is it on the Sharp Report, but we’re seeing the movement in the line, and in the Sharp Projections as well. We’re seeing a Sharp Projection right at 238.5, meaning that we’ve got a half-point to work with. And the projection is even higher than the total we’re getting this at, which is a huge plus. 

The line opened at 237.5, and the Sharps pushed this line up to 238.5 in most places - we’re getting it at 238 though. The Sharp App Money Handles tool though is the biggest proponent of this play, as we’re seeing a measly 29% of the total bets placed in this game on the Over, but a whopping 98% of the money - THAT is the definition of Sharp Money, as we’re seeing a difference of 69% on this total.

And we’ve seen it in these recent games. Toronto has turned their scoring around, ranking 8th in the league in FG percentage in the past five games, and seventh in total scoring during that stretch, putting up 123 points per game. The Kings, on the other hand, have been lackluster defensively and have turned the ball over a lot, with 15 total team turnovers on average in their last five games. But they still score and rebound well; they’re second in total rebounds, and 12th in scoring, which is actually above their normal clip. 

This total is sky high, but that’s okay, because there’s going to be very little defense played in this game, that should be competitive. 238 is a number that I anticipate climbing as the day goes on, so we’re happy to hammer it here - take the over.

PICK: Toronto/Sacramento over 238

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