NBA Bet of the Day | January 3, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

If you have any questions, hit me up in the Discord, linked below, and be sure to add a PRO SUBSCRIPTION to your daily routine to maximize your best bets, no matter the sport. 

OVERALL RECORD: 104-64-2, +31.86u
RECAP: We’ve started off 2024 HOT to begin the year and it shows in our 5-1 NBA record. We hit both of our plays yesterday, and I gave BOTH of them out for free in our Sharp App Discord channel. Both were absolutely sweat free, and we made another near-two-unit gain with our plays. Up near 32 units on the year, so let’s keep it going.

January 3, 2024

The Minnesota Timberwolves are the most dominant home team in the league, going 14-1 on their home court. Against the Spread, they’re 8-5-2, and are taking on a New Orleans Pelicans team that plays .500 basketball on the road - which means that we have to hammer the favorites, early.

One of my favorite strategies across all sports in betting is betting the favorites early, as these lines generally move in the favorites’ direction as the day goes on. And this couldn’t be more true for this play, as you can get it at -6.5 right now at places like FanDuel.

The Sharps hammered this play to -7, but then some small buy-back settled the play at -6.5. On our Money Handles tool, we’re seeing absolutely huge discrepancies, with 38% of the bets placed have been on this team, while the total money on this team has been huge, at 85%. That’s a difference of 47% that we’re seeing on Minnesota, meaning that we could continue to see this line move back to -7 throughout the day. To avoid that push, we’re able to get the hook with it at -110. 

And it makes sense that the Pelicans are favored by the public - seven points is a lot to handle, and often our friends from New Orleans are a really good team. But the splits say otherwise. 

Minnesota has absolutely dominated teams at home. They shoot just about 50% from the field at home, and are a dominant 3-point shooting team. They rebound well above league average and, most importantly, they have the best home defense in the league. They rank first or second in nearly every defensive statistical category at home, and allow only a measly 102 points per game scored in Minnesota. Considering they put up at least 114 on average, we’re seeing a possible 12-point curve here. 

While our Sharp AI has this game at -5.5, I still think that we’re safe to place this bet at the -6.5 mark, even the -7 mark. I would be careful if the number gets above that, as the Pelicans can still be a frisky team. 

Let’s count on Minnesota’s home dominance, and their presence on the Sharp Report, to take us to the promised land tonight. Hammer Minnesota.

PICK: Minnesota Timberwolves -6.5

Join the conversation for free in our Discord server or sign up to get PRO ACCESS using the following link: Mitch S

Join Discord and ask @MitchS any questions you have on other games!