NBA Bet of the Day | January 19, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 127-80-3, +36.72u
RECAP: Another NBA Bet of the Day that gets burned by late action in the game, as the Grizzlies couldn’t stop the Timberwolves from pulling away. We also missed out on our New York Knicks bet, and cashed our Indiana +8.5 bet (and they won outright, too). We went a sad 1-2 on the day, and we’re 10-9-1 in the NBA over the past week. Let’s look to cook up something better today.

January 19, 2024

We’ve never really seen this side of the Denver Nuggets over the past few years, as they’ve been a generally dominant force both away from home and on their home court. But when they play away from home, we’re seeing a team that has struggled to score and get stops; and their DOMINANCE has been passed to the team that they’re facing today. 

This is a little crazy to say, but the Boston Celtics are favored by SIX POINTS against a top team in the West in the Denver Nuggets. Most squares might look at that and bet the Nuggets; they’re a dominant team, there’s no way that they lose by more than six. This is like, the Finals! But a deep dive into the numbers say that this game might be much more lopsided than we think. 

Our first tool is always the Money Handles tool in the Sharp App, to help to identify potential Sharp Money and get lines before they’re bet even more heavily on. This line opened at Denver +5, and then was quickly pushed to +6 overnight. But if we’re looking at our early returns on this game, we’re seeing that most of the bets are coming in on Denver - which makes a lot of sense, like we talked about above. In fact, only 29% of the total bets on this game are in favor of the Celtics - but the bets that are coming in are big money, as they hold 93% of the total bankroll on this game. That’s a difference of 64%, and the total now matches exactly what our Sharp AI is seeing too, with Boston favored by 6. 

Now, some ATS numbers: the Nuggets are 1-3 ATS this season when they’re the away underdog, and the Celtics hit ATS at a rate of 65% as the home team ATS. In fact, Denver’s struggles ATS go beyond just their underdog status; away from home, they hit their ATS at the second-worst rate in the league; only 33% of the time. We’re literally placing a bet that hits 66% of the time – what better odds do you want?

Every single matchup between these two teams over the past two years have been decided by six points or MORE. A gut-punch is more likely than the public thinks, and there’s only one team that hasn’t lost at home all season: it’s the Celtics. Boston generally covers the spread at home by an average of 5 points per cover - let’s get it today. Boston by at least 7.

PICK: Boston Celtics -6

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