NBA Bet of the Day | January 18, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 126-78-3, +37.81u
RECAP: We absolutely hit a sweater yesterday, with the under hitting thanks to Giannis sitting out, and the Cavaliers absolutely stomped on the Bucks last night. The Cavs can really be dangerous down the run, I think. Overall, we went 2-2 on the day, and tonight, we have a bet that pretty much everyone loves.

January 18, 2024

This is like, the bet to end all bets. It’s a bet that we’ve seen tremendous line movement and some serious handle action throughout the day. It’s been on the Sharp Report, the Mega Sharps love it, and we’re all in on this. But you may not like it. 

There’s an under-spell that’s occurring after our plentiful overs to begin the year, as the books have begun to adjust to the scoring that’s happening in the NBA. And tonight, the Timberwolves are hosting the Memphis Grizzlies in a matchup that is heavily favored towards the home team. 

Neither of these teams are very proficient in scoring, and the under looks great here. Let’s dive into why we love the under tonight so much. 

The Money Handles tool has been all over this play, hovering around 33% of the bets placed, and around 80% of the total money on the game. PRO Subscribers got this play at O/U 215, but I still love it at this number, as we currently have a difference of 47% on the under at that 214 number that it’s currently hovering at. Maybe you can even get it at 214.5. 

The Timberwolves are a dominant team at home, and defense is by far their strong suit at home. As the home favorite this season, the under is hitting at a rate of 64% - that’s outrageous this long into the season. They should really be able to dictate the tempo tonight and slow the game down against a Grizzlies team that wants to get out and run, and their home defense will show up tonight. Let’s dive into the stats. 

Away from home, Memphis ranks second-to-last in FG percentage and 22nd in the league in points scored. Minnesota has the best home defense BY FAR in the league, allowing only 102 points per game on their home court. 

This Minnesota offense actually struggles to score at home as well, ranking 25th in the league in points per game at home. The Grizzlies? They rank 11th in the league on the road playing defense.

All of these things align for a prime time under in this game. It’ll be slow, grueling, and could even have blowout potential if the moment’s right. Let’s take the under at 215.

PICK: Memphis/Minnesota under 215

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